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2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout68% Increase
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 14 0
Popular vote 2,148,278 1,601,933
Percentage 55.45% 41.35%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Clinton won the state with 55.5% of the vote over Trump's 41.35%, or a 14-point margin. Despite her victory in the state, Clinton's vote share was slightly poorer than the vote shares President Barack Obama got from the state in 2008 and 2012. This was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Pennsylvania, and the first time since 1932 that New Jersey voted Democratic while Pennsylvania voted Republican. Donald Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Somerset County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primary elections

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New Jersey's presidential primaries were on June 7, 2016, with the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties participating.[2] Registered members of each party could only vote in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated could choose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2016 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 566,247 63.32% 79 12 91
Bernie Sanders 328,058 36.68% 47 2 49
Uncommitted — 0 0 0
Total 894,305 100% 126 16 142
Source: [4][5]

Republican primary

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Republican primary results by county:
  Donald Trump
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

3 candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[3]

New Jersey Republican primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 360,212 80.41% 51 0 51
John Kasich (withdrawn) 59,866 13.36% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 27,874 6.22% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 447,952 100.00% 51 0 51
Source: The Green Papers

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[6] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[7] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[8] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[9] Safe D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[10] Safe D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12] Likely D November 8, 2016
Fox News[13] Safe D November 7, 2016

Candidate ballot access

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[14]

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey[15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Hillary Clinton 2,148,278 55.45%
Republican Donald Trump 1,601,933 41.35%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 72,477 1.87%
Green Jill Stein 37,772 0.98%
Constitution Darrell L. Castle 6,161 0.16%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy 2,156 0.06%
American Delta Party Rocky De La Fuente 1,838 0.05%
Workers World Monica Moorehead 1,749 0.05%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva 1,682 0.04%
Majority 546,345 14.10%
Turnout 3,874,046

By county

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County Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Atlantic 60,924 51.61% 52,690 44.64% 4,427 3.75% 8,234 6.97% 118,041
Bergen 231,211 54.76% 175,529 41.57% 15,473 3.67% 55,682 13.19% 422,213
Burlington 121,725 55.01% 89,272 40.34% 10,286 4.65% 32,453 14.67% 221,283
Camden 146,717 64.06% 72,631 31.71% 9,699 4.23% 74,086 32.35% 229,047
Cape May 18,750 38.07% 28,446 57.75% 2,061 4.18% -9,696 -19.68% 49,257
Cumberland 27,771 51.11% 24,453 45.01% 2,107 3.88% 3,318 6.10% 54,331
Essex 240,837 76.97% 63,176 20.19% 8,871 2.84% 177,661 56.78% 312,884
Gloucester 66,870 47.34% 67,544 47.82% 6,840 4.84% -674 -0.48% 141,254
Hudson 163,917 74.32% 49,043 22.24% 7,582 3.44% 114,874 52.08% 220,542
Hunterdon 28,898 40.33% 38,712 54.02% 4,050 5.65% -9,814 -13.69% 71,660
Mercer 104,775 66.29% 46,193 29.23% 7,090 4.48% 58,582 37.06% 158,058
Middlesex 193,044 58.76% 122,953 37.42% 12,560 3.82% 70,091 21.34% 328,557
Monmouth 137,181 43.17% 166,723 52.47% 13,846 4.36% -29,542 -9.30% 317,750
Morris 115,249 45.46% 126,071 49.72% 12,217 4.82% -10,822 -4.26% 253,537
Ocean 87,150 31.49% 179,079 64.71% 10,496 3.80% -91,929 -33.22% 276,725
Passaic 116,759 59.50% 72,902 37.15% 6,567 3.35% 43,857 22.35% 196,228
Salem 11,904 39.88% 16,381 54.87% 1,568 5.25% -4,477 -14.99% 29,853
Somerset 85,689 54.55% 65,505 41.70% 5,898 3.75% 20,184 12.85% 157,092
Sussex 24,212 32.21% 46,658 62.08% 4,288 5.71% -22,446 -29.87% 75,158
Union 147,414 65.94% 68,114 30.47% 8,042 3.59% 79,300 35.47% 223,570
Warren 17,281 34.78% 29,858 60.10% 2,544 5.12% -12,577 -25.32% 49,683
Totals 2,148,278 54.99% 1,601,933 41.00% 156,512 4.01% 546,345 13.99% 3,906,723
 
 
 
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[16]

By congressional district

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Clinton won 7 of 12 congressional districts. Trump and Clinton each won a district held by the other party.[17]

District Clinton Trump Representative
1st 60.6% 36.1% Donald Norcross
2nd 46.0% 50.6% Frank LoBiondo
3rd 45.2% 51.4% Tom MacArthur
4th 41.0% 55.8% Chris Smith
5th 47.7% 48.8% Scott Garrett
Josh Gottheimer
6th 56.2% 40.6% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 48.6% 47.5% Leonard Lance
8th 75.7% 21.5% Albio Sires
9th 64.3% 33.1% Bill Pascrell
10th 85.2% 12.8% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 47.9% 48.8% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 65.0% 31.8% Bonnie Watson Coleman

Analysis

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Hillary Clinton's 55.5% of the vote was 2.9% less than Barack Obama's win in the state in 2012. Overall, the trend from 2012 to 2016 was that suburban areas of central and northern New Jersey voted more Democratic, while the shore and southern New Jersey voted more Republican. Clinton's most notable improvements over Obama in 2012 were seen in Union, Somerset, and Morris Counties. In Morris, Clinton came within 5% of winning the county, which had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Clinton's stronger performance in the suburban towns of north-central New Jersey, such as Summit, Westfield, and Bridgewater, helped her narrowly win the 7th congressional district.

On the other hand, southern New Jersey, especially Cumberland County and Salem County, voted significantly more Republican than they had in 2012. For example, even though Cumberland County voted Democratic in both 2012 and 2016, Clinton won it by just 6%, whereas Obama won it by nearly 24% in 2012. Additionally, the four shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May all voted more Republican than they had in 2012. While Mitt Romney had won these four counties collectively by around 6% in 2012, Trump won them by 17% in 2016.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
  2. ^ Green papers for 2016 primaries (D) (R). Retrieved 2016-04-05.
  3. ^ a b "Official List / Candidates for President / For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/07/2016 Election" (PDF). NJ.gov. April 14, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 30, 2017. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
  4. ^ The Green Papers
  5. ^ New Jersey Democratic Primary Official Results - New Jersey Department of State
  6. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  8. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  11. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. ^ "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/08/2016 Election" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. August 12, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  15. ^ "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/08/2016 Election" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. December 6, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 7, 2017. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  16. ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  17. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
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