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Is Israel Preparing for a Preemptive

F
ollowing Iran’s missile attack highlights Israel’s “Samson Option” trip without mid-air refueling. The Israeli
on Israel on October 1, Israel strategy, which is based on the potential Air Force’s F-15I, similar to the F-15E,
is contemplating retaliation. use of nuclear weapons in response to has a range of around 5,000 kilometers,
While the 180 ballistic missiles existential threats or attacks involving making it well-suited for striking Natanz
caused little to no damage weapons of mass destruction. Among its and other distant targets.
and, fortunately, resulted in no casual- recommendations is for Israel to openly A conventional attack on Natanz
ties—except for one Palestinian killed acknowledge its nuclear arsenal as a seems impractical, especially since
by flying debris—Israel has promised a deterrent against Iran. The study also much of the complex is buried deep
response. And according to Israeli De- considers the possibility of preemptive underground. While the BLU-110 bun-
fense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel nuclear strikes to prevent catastrophic ker-buster bomb, which destroyed
Hagari, it will be on an unprecedented outcomes. Ultimately, the study advo- Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s bunker
scale. Could Israel be preparing for a cates for preventing Iran from acquiring in Lebanon, would cause significant
nuclear strike? nuclear weapons at all costs. damage, it is unlikely to penetrate Iran’s
Defense circles believe that the Is- The current crisis may prompt heavily fortified nuclear facilities. A more
raeli Air Force is targeting Iran’s nuclear Israeli leadership to consider targeted suitable option would be the GBU-57
facility in Natanz, where Iran has been strikes on Iranian territory to cripple or Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP),
working on a nuclear bomb for years, completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear pro- a 13-ton bomb deployable only by the
despite denials from Tehran. The Center gram before it becomes an insurmoun- B-2 Spirit stealth bomber or the F-15EX.
for Strategic and International Studies table threat. Israel is believed to possess However, Israel has not yet received
predicts that Iran could soon possess between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads the F-15EX fighters, which are expected
around 10–20 nuclear weapons, mainly and can deliver them via multiple me- by 2026. If Israel were to consider the
fission devices with a range of 15–30 thods, including aircraft, submarine-lau- BLU-57 as a conventional option, special
kilotons. Iran’s delivery systems likely nched cruise missiles, and the Jericho C-130 Hercules transport planes would
include at least 100 Shahab 3 missiles series of intermediate-to-intercontinen- be required for the mission. The U.S.
(with a range of 1,300 km), several hund- tal-range ballistic missiles. Air Force has previously used Hercules
red smaller Shahab missiles (300–500 The Israeli Navy operates around planes to deploy large, heavy bombs.
km range), and some solid-fuel Sejjil-2 ten German-made Dolphin-class sub- The Israeli Air Force, with its expertise in
missiles (2,000 km range). marines, which can be equipped with covert operations using these transport
A recent study by the Begin-Sadat cruise missiles carrying a 200-kiloton aircraft (as seen in the successful Enteb-
Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan nuclear warhead containing up to six be raid), now operates the C-130J Super
University underscores the serious kilograms of plutonium. A 200-kiloton Hercules, which flies at low altitudes,
threat posed by Iran and its regional weapon is roughly 10 times the power allowing Israel to conduct more com-
militias to Israel, particularly if Tehran of the plutonium bomb dropped on plex, clandestine missions deep inside
acquires nuclear weapons, possibly with Nagasaki. These cruise missiles have a enemy territory, as noted by IDF Chief of
North Korean support. The potential for range of at least 1,500 km, putting Iran’s General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz when
Iran to obtain nuclear-armed missiles nuclear facility at Natanz within striking Israel received its first C-130J in 2014.
poses a significant danger to the region. distance of Israel’s submarines stationed Deploying large transport planes deep
Other Middle Eastern powers might also in the Mediterranean Sea. Another opti- into Iranian airspace is undeniably risky.
pursue nuclear capabilities in response, on is the use of Israel’s Jericho III inter- A more feasible option might involve
raising the stakes for a nuclear arms continental ballistic missiles, capable of using F-15 jets combined with the GBU-
race. This emphasizes the critical need striking virtually any location on Earth. 72, a lighter (two-ton) advanced version
for strong international efforts to pre- These missiles could potentially carry a of the GBU-57 that has shown improved
vent further escalation. Yet, these efforts one-megaton warhead—50 times the results. A salvo of 100 or more of these
have so far yielded little. It is well-known power of the Nagasaki bomb—allowing bombs concentrated on a single target
that Iran is enriching uranium on a large Israel to simultaneously target and could have a devastating effect. Israel
scale, bringing them ever closer to deve- destroy multiple Iranian nuclear sites has already placed an order for these su-
loping a nuclear weapon. with pinpoint accuracy, aided by Israel’s perweapons with the Pentagon, though
Now that Iran has launched its se- advanced satellite technology. it’s unclear if they have been delivered
cond missile and drone attack on Israel, A third option involves the Israeli yet. Should these not be available, Israel
and as aggression from Iran and its Air Force. Both the Boeing F-15 and F-35 may have little choice but to consider
allied militias increases, the necessity for aircraft have nuclear capabilities and the “red button” for a nuclear strike.
a decisive response to Iranian violence can reach targets in Iran. However, the
grows. The Begin-Sadat Center study F-35’s range is insufficient for a round-