KEI Industries Q2 FY25 Update: Hold Rating
KEI Industries Q2 FY25 Update: Hold Rating
India I Equities
Company Update
Change in Estimates Target Reco
17 October 2024
KEI Industries
Rating: Hold
Revenue growth guidance maintained; retaining a Hold Target Price(12-mth): Rs.4,796
Share Price: Rs.4,381
Fluctuating copper prices dented KEI Industries’ Q2 margins. The
company retained its ~17% revenue growth guidance, with 10.5-11%
EBITDA margin for FY25. Growth would be driven by large capacity Key data KEII IN / KEIN.BO
additions and a strong orderbook. The company has announced Rs2bn 52-week high/low Rs5040 / 2317
Sensex/Nifty 81501 / 24971
via QIP to fund the required capex, thereby avoiding the debt route. We
3-m average volume $13.6m
maintain our Hold rating as we roll over to FY27e earnings with a higher Market cap Rs396bn / $4710.7m
TP of Rs4,796 (earlier Rs4,771), 43x FY27e EPS of Rs95.4. Shares outstanding 90m
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Oct-23
Oct-24
CAGRs over FY24-27. At the CMP, the stock trades at 57x/46x FY25e/26e
KEII Sensex
EPS of Rs76.6/Rs95.6. Our 12-mth TP, post Q2 earnings, is Rs4,796 (43x
FY27e EPS of Rs95.4). We maintain our Hold recommendation. Source: Bloomberg
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
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5,000
4,000 LT cable
39%
Housewire/WW
3,000 32%
2,000
1,000
0
EHV
Jul-21
Jan-23
Jul-24
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-24
Oct-20
Apr-22
Oct-23
Apr-21
Oct-21
Oct-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Oct-24
4% HT cable
19%
Source: Bloomberg Source: Company
Fig 9 – P/E has been expanding since Mar’20 Fig 10 – The stock trades above +2SD
5,000 70
55x 60
4,000 50
46x
40 +2 SD
3,000 37x
30
+1 SD
28x 20
2,000 mean
10
-1 SD
1,000 0
-10 -2 SD
0 -20
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-24
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Oct-23
Oct-24
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Risks
◼ Significant delays in commissioning of capacity.
◼ Slow addition of dealers could restrict channel sales growth, which
commands higher margins and requires less working capital.
May-17
Sep-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
May-23
Jul-21
Oct-17
Apr-18
Apr-24
Oct-24
Jan-15
Jun-15
Dec-15
Nov-16
Mar-19
Feb-20
Jan-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Nov-23
29 1-Aug-23 Hold 2,492 2,271
30 5-May-24 Hold 4,324 3,900
31 31-Jul-24 Hold 4,771 4,330
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