FUTURE NAVIGATION DEMAND TRENDS: ACCURATE RIDE

REQUEST FORECASTING OPTIMIZATION VIA MACHINE LEARNING

A PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by

NAVEENRAJ S (312820205028)
ARUNKUMAR B (312820205006)
in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree
of
BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY
In
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

AGNI COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY

THALAMBUR

ANNA UNIVERSITY: CHENNAI 600 025

MAY 2024

1
 ANNA UNIVERSITY: CHENNAI 600 025
BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

Certified that this project report Future Navigation Demand Trends: Accurate
Ride Request Forecasting Optimization Via Machine Learning is the bonafide
work of NAVEEN RAJ S (312820205028), ARUN KUMAR B (312820205006),
who carried out the project work under my supervision.

SIGNATURE SIGNATURE

Dr.S. GEERTHIK, M.E, Ph.D. Dr.S. GEERTHIK, M.E, Ph.D.

HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT SUPERVISOR
Department of Information Department of Information
Technology Technology
Agni College Of Technology, Agni College Of Technology,
Thalambur, Chennai - 600130 Thalambur, Chennai - 600130

Submitted for the project viva held on …………………………

INTERNAL EXAMINER EXTERNAL EXAMINER

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We would like to express our deepest gratitude to the management of “AGNI

COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY” and would like to thank our respected Principal
Dr. SRINIVASAN ALAVANDAR for his words of inspiration and for providing
necessary facilities to carry out our project work successfully.

We are immensely thankful to our project guide Dr. S. GEERTHIK, M.E,

Ph.D., Associate professor Head of the Department, Information Technology for his
words of wisdom and his constant source of inspiration.

I would like to offer our heartfelt thanks to Dr. S. GEERTHIK, M.E, Ph.D.,
Associate professor Head of the Department, He gave valuable suggestion for
completing our project work successfully.

We extended our warmest thanks to all the faculty members of our department
for their assistance and we also thank all our friends who helped us in bringing out
our project in good shape and form.

Finally, we express our sincere benevolence to our beloved parents for their
perpetual encouragement and support in all endeavors.

I
 ABSTRACT

Transport Network Companies are represented by platforms such as Uber, Rapido,

and Ola. In order to satisfy passenger requests, evaluate system efficiency, and
improve service dependability, it is becoming more and more necessary to analyze
large volumes of accessible information using big data technologies and
sophisticated algorithms. there are number of issues facing the ride-hailing sector
that affect the precision and effectiveness of the current systems. The demand for
rides can be influenced by dynamic and non-linear elements including the weather,
special events, and unforeseen catastrophes. Forecasting models get more difficult
due to seasonality, trends, and the dynamic character of metropolitan surroundings.
Moreover, privacy issues, the influence of legal changes, and data availability and
quality all add to the difficulty of maximizing ride-hailing services. This study uses
a trip request dataset to construct a model that uses data to predict the gap between
passenger needs and driver supply in a specific time period and location. Important
details in the dataset include the time of the trip booking, the pickup location, and
the latitude and longitude of the drop point. Columns such as client ID, booking
timestamp, pickup latitude, pickup longitude, drop latitude, and drop longitude are
linked to each data point. Using a phone application, the traveler selects the origin
and destination before touching the "Request Pickup" button to start a ride request
In response to the inquiry, the driver grants the command. Even though the training
is small in comparison to the ride-hailing sector as a whole, it is considered enough
for pattern recognition. By utilizing data-driven insights to more fully comprehend
and tackle current issues, close the gap between rider demand and driver supply, and
ultimately raise the general effectiveness and dependability of these transportation
services, the study seeks to improve ride-hailing systems.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER TITLE PAGE
NO NO

ABSTRACT II
LIST OF FIGURES V
LIST OF ABBRIVIATION VI
1 INTRODUCTION 01
1.1 Introduction to Project 02
1.2 Purpose of The System 03
2 SYSTEM ANALYSIS 04
2.1 Challenges in ride hailing demand 05
2.2 Proposed solution: using Machine Learning
06
2.3 Data Analysis Techniques
2.3.1 XG Boost: The Predictive Model 07
2.4 Hardware and Software Requirements 09
2.4.1 Software Requirement 09
2.5 Input and Output 10
2.5.1 Temporal Data 10
2.5.2 Location Data 10
2.5.3 Passenger Data 10
2.5.4 Output: Raining phrase 11
2.5.5 Prediction Phrase 11
2.6 Limitation 11
2.6.1 Data-Driven Challenges 11
2.6.2 Model Limitation 12
2.6.3 External Factor 12
2.6.4 Mitigation Limitation 13
2.7 Problem in Existing System 14
2.7.1 Inaccurate Wait Time for Ride 14
2.7.2 Driver Insufficiency and Revenue 14
2.7.3 Impact of The Problem 14
2.8 Proposed System 15
2.9 System Architeture 17
3 FEASIBILITY REPORT 18
3.1 Technical Feasibility 19

III
 3.2 Operational Feasibility 19
3.3 Economic Feasibility 20
4 SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT 21
4.1 Data Acquisition and Pre-processing 22
4.1.1 Data Acquisition 22
4.1.2 Data Pre-processing 22
4.2 Model Training and Validation 22
4.2.1 Choosing XG Boost Algorithm 23
4.2.2 Training the model 23
4.2.3 Evaluating the model 24
4.3 Performance Requirement 24
4.3.1 Deployment: Putting the Model Work 24
4.3.2 Ensuring Peak Performance 25
5 SYSTEM DESIGN 26
5.1 Introduction 27
5.2 E-R Diagram 28
5.3 Flow Diagram 29
5.4 DFD Symbols 31
5.5 Data Flow Diagram 34
5.6 Use Case Diagram 35
5.7 Class Diagram 36
6 OUTPUT SCREENSHOTS 37
7 CODING & EXPLANATION 38
7.1 Coding 49
7.2 Coding Explanation
8 SYSTEM TESTING AND IMPLEMENTATION 56
8.1 System Testing 57
8.2 Implementation 57
8.3 Additional Consideration 58
9 CONCLUSION 59
10 REFERENCES 61

IV
 LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE NO TITLE NO PAGE

5.6.1 Use case Diagram 35

5.7.1 Class Diagram 36
5.2.1 E-R Diagram 37
2.9.1 Architecture Diagram 17
5.5.1 Flowchart 29

5.3.1 Data Flow Diagram 34

6 Output Screenshot 38

6.1 Test Dataset Output 39

6.2 Train Dataset Output 39

6.3 Comparison of Test & Train 40

6.4 Comparison passed 40

6.17 Analyzing Working Day Vs Holiday 45

6.19 Analyzing Windspeed, Humidity 46

6.20 Weather Should Be Analyzed 46

6.21 Applied Formula to Predict 47

6.22 Final Output Predicted 47

V
 LIST OF ABBREVIATION

TNCs Transportation Network Companies

XG Boost eXtreme Gradient Boosting
RMSE Root Mean Squared Error
ETA Estimated Time of Arrival
GPS Global Positioning System
SVM Support Vector Machine
ANN Artificial Neural Network

VI
 CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION

1
1.1 INTRODUCTION TO PROJECT

In recent years, the ride-hailing industry has experienced significant growth,

driven by platforms such as Uber, Rapido, and Ola. This surge in prominence
underscores the need for a deeper understanding of the dynamics shaping
transportation services. To satisfy passenger demands, evaluate system efficiency,
and enhance service dependability, analyzing vast volumes of data using big data
technologies and sophisticated algorithms has become imperative. However, the
sector grapples with various challenges, including fluctuating demand influenced by
dynamic elements like weather and special events, alongside regulatory changes and
data-related hurdles. Bridging the gap between passenger needs and driver supply is
crucial, prompting this study to leverage a comprehensive trip request dataset to
construct predictive models. Key parameters such as trip booking time, pickup
locations, and drop point coordinates are scrutinized to forecast supply-demand
disparities accurately. Despite the vastness of the ride-hailing sector, the insights
gleaned from this focused analysis hold significant promise for enhancing the overall
effectiveness and reliability of transportation services. Meanwhile, travelers
increasingly seek prompt and seamless transportation solutions, yet encounter
obstacles such as unfulfilled reservations or prolonged wait times due to insufficient
local bike availability. Despite these challenges, the popularity and significance of
ride-hailing services continue to soar within the broader transportation landscape.
Leveraging insights from Bangalore's bustling ride-hailing scene, this study embarks
on a journey to develop predictive models that effectively forecast supply and
demand dynamics. With a keen focus on factors such as trip booking time, pickup
locations, and drop point coordinates, this innovative approach promises to optimize
fleet management and enhance the overall ride-hailing experience. As the industry

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 strives to anticipate and adapt to evolving consumer needs, the insights gleaned from
this study hold immense potential for shaping the future of transportation services.

1.2 PURPOSE OF THE SYSTEM

➢ Analyze large volumes of ride-hailing data using big data techniques.

➢ Gain data-driven insights to improve the reliability of ride-hailing services.
➢ Predict the gap between passenger demand and driver supply for a specific time and
location.
➢ Account for dynamic factors influencing ride demand.
➢ Address the challenges of seasonality and trends in forecasting models.
➢ Consider privacy concerns, legal regulations, and data quality issues.
➢ Utilize data analysis to optimize ride-hailing services and enhance overall

effectiveness.

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 CHAPTER-2

SYSTEM ANALYSIS

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2.1 CHALLENGES IN RIDE-HAILING DEMAND FORECASTING

Accurately forecasting ride demand in the dynamic world of ride-hailing is

akin to navigating a weather vane on a busy street corner. Just as a sudden gust of
wind can send the vane spinning, unforeseen events like torrential downpours, major
concerts, or even medical emergencies can cause significant and unpredictable
fluctuations in ride requests. These "dynamic and non-linear factors" can create
temporary surges or dips in demand that traditional forecasting methods often
struggle to capture.

But the challenges don't stop there. Demand naturally ebbs and flows throughout
the year, with predictable seasonal peaks during holidays and vacations, alongside
long-term trends like population growth or shifts in work patterns. These
"seasonality and trends" require sophisticated models that can not only learn from
historical data but also adapt to these ever-changing patterns. Further complicating
matters is the very fabric of the city itself. "Urban environment dynamics" - think
new infrastructure projects, shifting traffic patterns, or even temporary road closures
- can throw a wrench into the most meticulously crafted forecasting model.

The need for accurate data is paramount, but this too presents a hurdle. Balancing
"data privacy" with the need to collect enough user information to build effective
models is a delicate dance. Furthermore, ever-changing "legal regulations" can
restrict the data ride-hailing companies can collect or how they can use it, further
hindering forecasting efforts. Finally, the quality of the data itself is crucial.
"Inaccurate or incomplete data,” like missing entries or GPS errors, can significantly
hinder a model's ability to learn and predict effectively. In essence, building an
accurate ride demand forecasting model requires navigating a complex web of

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dynamic factors, ever-changing trends, and the very nature of the city itself, all while
ensuring responsible data collection practices and adapting to evolving legal
landscapes.

2.2 PROPOSED SOLUTION: MACHINE LEARNING-BASED RIDE

DEMAND FORECASTING.

Landscapes The challenges outlined above paint a complex picture for ride-hailing
companies seeking to optimize their services. Traditional forecasting methods
simply can't keep up with the ever-changing nature of ride demand. This project
proposes a revolutionary solution: a machine learning-based ride demand
forecasting model. Imagine a powerful algorithm, trained on a vast amount of
historical trip request data. This data would encompass not just the basics like pick-
up and drop-off locations, but also timestamps, potentially even anonymized
passenger information, and perhaps even external data sources like weather forecasts
or public event schedules. By feeding this rich data pool into a machine-learning
model, we can unlock the power of pattern recognition and predictive analytics.

Think of the model as a highly-skilled detective, meticulously analyzing historical

data to identify patterns and trends. Did ride requests surge during a snowstorm last
year? The model will remember. Do weekend mornings in a specific neighborhood
see a consistent spike in demand for airport rides? The model will learn this too.
Over time, the model becomes adept at recognizing these patterns and relationships
within the data, allowing it to not only predict future demand with greater accuracy
but also adapt to new trends and changing circumstances.

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2.3 DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

Circumstances Imagine a bustling city map, each dot representing a historical ride
request. K-Means clustering comes in like a cartographer, organizing these
seemingly random dots into distinct clusters.

Step 1: Defining the Number of Clusters (K): This initial step involves determining the
optimal number of clusters (K) for our data. The choice of K impacts the granularity
of our analysis. Choosing too few clusters might group together very different ride
requests, while too many clusters could result in overly specific groupings with
limited data points.

Step 2: Randomly Placing Centroids: The algorithm then randomly positions

"centroids" (think cluster centers) across the data points. These centroids will act as
the initial anchors for our clusters.

Step 3: Assigning Data Points to Clusters: Now comes the magic. Each data point (i.e.,
a historical ride request) is analyzed and assigned to the closest centroid based on a
distance metric, often Euclidean distance. In simpler terms, the algorithm calculates
which cluster "center" each ride request is closest to in terms of its features (e.g.,
location, time).

Step 4: Recalculating Centroids: In Once all data points are assigned to a preliminary
cluster, the algorithm recalculates the centroid for each cluster. The new centroid
represents the average of all the data points currently assigned to that cluster.
Step 5: Iteration and Refinement: The beauty of K-Means lies in its iterative nature.
Steps 3 and 4 are repeated until a stopping criterion is met. This criterion could be a

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set number of iterations or a point where the centroids no longer significantly
change, indicating that the clusters have stabilized.

2.3.1 XGBOOST: BUILDING THE PREDICTIVE MODEL

Once K-Means has organized our data into meaningful clusters, XGBoost takes
center stage. This powerful algorithm acts as our prediction engine, learning from
the clustered data to forecast future ride demand.

XG Boost is a type of ensemble learning method, which essentially combines the

strengths of multiple decision trees. Think of a decision tree as a series of questions
leading to a final prediction. XG Boost builds a "forest" of these decision trees, with
each tree learning from the previous one to progressively improve the model's
accuracy.

Gradient Boosting: XG Boost utilizes a technique called gradient boosting, which

focuses on the model's errors. With each iteration, the algorithm hones in on areas
where the previous trees made mistakes, building subsequent trees that address those
shortcomings.

Regularization: XG Boost employs regularization techniques to prevent overfitting,

a common challenge in machine learning where the model becomes overly focused
on the training data and loses its ability to generalize to unseen data.

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 2.4 HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

Developing Kit

Processor RAM Disk Space

VISUAL- Computer with a 2GB Minimum 20

STUDIO CODE 2.6GHz processor GB
or higher

Database

MySQL 5.0 Intel Pentium Minimum 512 MB Minimum 20

AWS CLOUD processor at Physical Memory; 1 GB
SERVICE 2.6GHz or faster GB Recommended

2.4.1 Software Requirements:

• Programming Language : Python, Scikit, Pandas, Pycharm

• Development Environment : Google Co-Lab, IDE, Jupyter NB

• Additional Consideration : OS (Windows, MacOS, Linux)

• Database : MySQL5.6.12-log, AWS

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 2.5 INPUT AND OUTPUT

The major inputs and outputs and major functions of the system are follows:

2.5.1 INPUT: TEMPORAL DATA:

• Day of the Week: Demand patterns often vary significantly based on weekdays,
weekends, and holidays.
• Time of Day: Morning commutes, lunchtime peaks, and late-night outings all have
distinct demand profiles.
• Season: Holidays, vacations, and seasonal weather changes can impact ride requests.

2.5.2 LOCATION DATA:

• Pick-up and Drop-off Neighborhoods: Socioeconomic factors and business

districts can influence demand patterns.
• Proximity to Public Transportation: Areas with limited public transport options
might see higher demand for ride-hailing services.
• Traffic Patterns: Congestion can affect both rider wait times and driver availability.

2.5.3 PASSENGER DATA (OPTIONAL - CONSIDER PRIVACY

CONCERNS):

• Number of Passengers: This can influence the type of vehicle requested (sedan vs.
SUV).
• Payment Method: Cash vs. cashless preferences might indicate different customer
segments.
• Trip Purpose (Optional - Anonymized): Categorizing trips as commutes, airport
rides, or nightlife outings can provide valuable insights.

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 2.5.4 OUTPUT: RAINING PHASE:

• Model Parameters: During the training phase, the XGBoost algorithm will learn
from the historical ride request data and optimize its internal parameters. These
parameters essentially represent the "knowledge" the model has acquired about ride
demand patterns. This information is typically saved as a model file.
• Evaluation Metrics: Performance metrics like Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
will be calculated to assess the model's accuracy in predicting ride demand on a
validation dataset. This helps us gauge how well the model generalizes to unseen
data.

2.5.5 PREDICTION PHASE:

• Predicted Ride Demand: Once trained, the model can be used to predict future ride
demand for specific times and locations. This prediction could be a numerical value
(e.g., expected number of ride requests in a particular area during a given time
window) or a probability distribution indicating the likelihood of different demand
levels.

2.6 LIMITATIONS

2.6.1 DATA-DRIVEN CHALLENGES:

• Data Quality: The accuracy of any machine learning model hinges on the quality
of the data it's trained on. Missing, inaccurate, or inconsistent data can lead to flawed
predictions.
• Data Bias: If the training data itself is biased (e.g., overrepresents certain areas or
demographics), the model's predictions will reflect that bias. Careful data cleaning
and selection are crucial.

11
• Data Privacy: Balancing the need for comprehensive data with user privacy is a
constant challenge. Collecting and utilizing passenger information requires careful
consideration of ethical and legal implications.

2.6.2 MODEL LIMITATIONS:

• Limited Generalizability: Machine learning models learn from historical data.
Unforeseen events or significant changes in user behavior might render the model's
predictions inaccurate. Regular retraining and updates are essential.
• Model Complexity: As you incorporate more data points and complex
relationships, models can become increasingly intricate. This can lead to challenges
in interpretability – understanding why the model makes certain predictions.
Additionally, very complex models can require significant computational resources
for training and deployment.
• Black Box Effect: Some machine learning algorithms, particularly deep learning
models, can be like black boxes. While they deliver accurate predictions, it might be
difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons behind those predictions. This lack of
interpretability can be a concern for stakeholders.

2.6.3 EXTERNAL FACTORS:

• Unexpected Events: Sudden emergencies, natural disasters, or even major traffic
disruptions can throw even the most sophisticated model off balance. It's impossible
to account for every contingency.
• Shifting Urban Landscape: Constantly evolving cities with new infrastructure
projects or changing traffic patterns can challenge the model's ability to adapt.
Continuous monitoring and potential model updates might be needed.

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• Human Behavior: Ultimately, ride demand is driven by human choices. Changes
in user preferences or social trends can be difficult to predict and model.

2.6.4 MITIGATING LIMITATIONS:

While these limitations exist, ongoing research and development in machine

learning aim to address them. Here are some strategies to mitigate these limitations:

• Data Quality Management: Implementing robust data cleaning procedures and

utilizing data validation techniques can help ensure the quality of training data.
• Explainable AI: Research in Explainable AI (XAI) is developing methods to make
complex machine learning models more interpretable.
• Regular Monitoring and Updates: Continuously monitoring the model's
performance and retraining it with fresh data or adapting the model architecture can
help it stay relevant in a dynamic environment.
• Human Expertise Integration: Machine learning models should be seen as tools
to augment human expertise, not replace it. Combining model predictions with
human judgment can lead to more robust demand forecasting.

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 2.7 PROBLEMS IN EXISTING SYSTEM:

2.7.1. INACCURATE WAIT TIMES FOR RIDERS:

• Traditional forecasting methods often rely on historical averages, which can be

misleading. Unforeseen events, seasonal fluctuations, or even localized trends can
cause sudden surges or dips in demand that the system fails to capture.
• As a result, riders may be presented with inaccurate wait times. This can lead to
frustration and a negative user experience. Riders might cancel rides if the wait time
seems too long, impacting both rider satisfaction and driver earnings.

2.7.2. DRIVER INEFFICIENCY AND LOST REVENUE:

• Inaccurate demand forecasting can lead to inefficient driver allocation. In areas with
unexpectedly high demand, there might not be enough drivers available, resulting in
longer wait times for riders and potential frustration.
• Conversely, areas with predicted high demand that turn out to be lower might have
an excess of drivers waiting for rides, leading to wasted driver time and lost potential
income.

2.7.3. IMPACT OF THE PROBLEM:

• Decreased rider satisfaction: Riders frustrated with inaccurate wait times or long
waits might switch to alternative transportation options.
• Reduced driver earnings: Inefficient driver allocation can lead to lost potential
income for drivers, impacting their overall satisfaction with the platform.
• Negative impact on platform reputation: A reputation for inaccurate wait times and
inefficient service can damage the ride-hailing platform's brand image and user base.

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2.8 PROPOSED SYSTEM

The current state of ride-hailing is plagued by inaccurate wait times and inefficient
driver allocation, leading to frustration for both riders and drivers. These issues stem
from limitations in traditional forecasting methods that rely on historical averages
and fail to capture the dynamic nature of ride demand. Here, we propose a
revolutionary solution – a machine learning-based demand forecasting system.

Imagine a sophisticated algorithm trained on a vast treasure trove of historical ride

request data. This data goes beyond just pick-up and drop-off locations; it
encompasses timestamps, potentially even anonymized passenger information, and
could even integrate external data sources like weather forecasts or public event
schedules. By feeding this rich data pool into a machine learning model, we unlock
the power of pattern recognition and predictive analytics.

Think of the model as a highly skilled detective, meticulously analyzing historical

data to identify patterns and trends. Did ride requests surge during a snowstorm last
year? The model will remember. Do weekend mornings in a specific area
consistently see a spike in airport rides? The model will learn this too. Over time,
the model becomes adept at recognizing these patterns and relationships within the
data, allowing it to not only predict future demand with greater accuracy but also
adapt to new trends and changing circumstances.

This approach offers several advantages over traditional methods. Machine learning
models can handle complex, non-linear relationships within the data. They can
account for the impact of dynamic factors like weather or special events, leading to
more realistic wait time estimates for riders. Furthermore, the model's ability to

15
learn and adapt ensures that it can keep pace with seasonal trends and urban
environment changes.

For instance, the model might learn that "early morning commutes" on weekdays
have a consistently higher demand compared to weekends. It could also identify
areas with limited public transportation options, where demand is likely to be higher
during rush hour. This level of granularity allows for highly accurate predictions of
future ride demand for specific times and locations, ensuring a smoother experience
for riders.

Additionally, with a clearer picture of future demand, the platform can optimize
driver allocation. In areas with predicted high demand, the model can trigger
incentives or prioritize driver notifications, ensuring enough drivers are available to
meet rider needs. Conversely, in areas with lower predicted demand, driver
allocation can be adjusted to avoid an excess of waiting drivers. This not only
improves rider wait times but also maximizes earning potential for drivers, creating
a win-win situation for all stakeholders.

In essence, this proposed system represents a paradigm shift in ride demand

forecasting. By leveraging the power of machine learning, we can move away from
static predictions and towards a dynamic, data-driven approach that unlocks the
potential for a smoother, more efficient, and ultimately more satisfying ride-hailing
experience for both riders and drivers.

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2.9 SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE

Fig.2.9.1 System Architecture

17
 CHAPTER-3

FEASIBILITY REPORT

18
 3.1 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY

❖ Data Integration and Processing: Ensure compatibility and integration of diverse

data sources such as clinical trials, passive surveillance databases, and spontaneous
reporting systems. Develop data processing pipelines to clean, standardize, and
structure data for analysis.
❖ AI/ML Development: Build robust AI/ML models capable of automating AER
gathering and evaluation, as well as detecting safety signals accurately and rapidly.
This involves selecting appropriate algorithms, training them on relevant datasets,
and optimizing for performance.
❖ System Integration: Integrate AI/ML-based systems with existing
pharmacovigilance infrastructure and tools. Ensure interoperability and seamless
communication between different components of the system.
❖ Regulatory Compliance: Ensure that the developed technologies comply with
regulatory standards and guidelines for pharmacovigilance, data privacy, and
medical device/software regulations.
❖ Scalability and Performance: Design systems that can handle large volumes of data
and scale efficiently as the project progresses. Ensure that computational resources
are sufficient to support real-time processing and analysis.

3.2 OPERATIONAL FEASIBILITY

Resource Allocation: Allocate appropriate resources including personnel,

budget, and infrastructure for the successful execution of the project. This includes
recruiting specialists in clinical safety assessment and pharmacovigilance, as well as
investing in technology and data resources.

19
 Training and Education: Provide training to staff members on new technologies,
methodologies, and procedures introduced as part of the project. Ensure that the team
has the necessary skills and knowledge to effectively utilize the developed systems.
Change Management: Manage organizational change effectively to ensure smooth
adoption of new processes and technologies. Address potential resistance from
stakeholders and facilitate cultural shifts towards automation and optimization in
pharmacovigilance practices.
Risk Management: Identify potential risks and challenges associated with project
implementation and develop mitigation strategies to address them. This includes
risks related to data quality, regulatory compliance, and technological dependencies.

3.3 ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY

❖ Cost-Benefit Analysis: Conduct a thorough cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the
economic viability of the project. Assess both short-term and long-term costs
associated with development, implementation, and maintenance of the proposed
technologies and procedures.
❖ Budget Planning: Develop a detailed budget plan outlining the expenses required for
different aspects of the project, including software development, data acquisition,
personnel costs, and regulatory compliance. Ensure that sufficient funds are
available to support the project throughout its lifecycle.
❖ Sustainability: Assess the sustainability of the project in terms of long-term funding
and support. Identify potential revenue streams or cost-saving opportunities that
could sustain the project beyond its initial implementation phase.

20
 CHAPTER-4
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

21
 4.1. DATA ACQUISITION AND PREPROCESSING:

4.1.1. DATA ACQUISITION:

• Source: Historical ride request data from a ride-hailing platform (real or simulated).
• Real-world data offers the most realistic representation but might involve privacy
considerations.
• Simulated data can be used for initial development but needs real-world validation
eventually.
• Each data point should ideally include pick-up/drop-off locations, timestamps, and
potentially additional data (passenger information, external data sources).

4.1.2. DATA PREPROCESSING:

• Ensures data quality for the machine learning model.
• Techniques address missing values, outliers, inconsistencies, and data formatting.
• Features might be scaled or normalized for balanced model training.
• Optionally, new features can be created to capture complex data relationships

4.2. MODEL TRAINING AND VALIDATION:

• Splitting the Data: Imagine a giant puzzle – our preprocessed data. To train our
model effectively, we won't use the entire dataset at once. Instead, we'll strategically
divide it into two distinct sets:
• Training Set: This larger portion of the data (typically around 70-80%) serves as
the training ground for the model. The model will analyze the patterns and
relationships within this data, essentially "learning" how to predict future ride
demand.

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 • Validation Set: This smaller portion (around 20-30%) serves as the testing
ground. Once the model is trained on the training set, we'll use the validation
set to assess its performance in predicting ride demand on unseen data. This
helps us gauge how well the model generalizes to real-world scenarios beyond
the training data.

4.2.1. Choosing the Right Tool: The XG Boost Algorithm.

Now, we need to select an appropriate machine-learning algorithm to train our

model. XG Boost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) is a powerful choice for this task.
Here's why:

High Accuracy: XG Boost is known for its ability to achieve excellent prediction
accuracy across various machine-learning problems. This makes it a great candidate
for our ride demand forecasting task.

Scalability: Real-world ride-hailing data can be massive. XG Boost excels at

handling large datasets efficiently.

Flexibility: XG Boost allows for customization of its parameters, enabling us to

fine-tune the model for optimal performance on our specific data and prediction
needs.

4.2.2. Training the Model: Learning from the Data

With the training data set and the XG Boost algorithm chosen, we're ready to embark
on the training process. This involves feeding the training data into the XG Boost
algorithm. The algorithm will then analyze the data, identify patterns, and essentially
learn how to map historical ride request information to future demand predictions.

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 4.2.3. Evaluating the Model: Assessing Performance

Once the model is trained, it's crucial to evaluate its performance on unseen data.
Here's where the validation set comes into play. We'll use the validation set to test
the model's ability to predict ride demand accurately. A common metric for
evaluating our model's performance is Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). RMSE
measures the average magnitude of the difference between the model's predictions
and the actual ride demand values. A lower RMSE indicates better model
performance, signifying the model's ability to generate predictions closer to real-
world demand patterns.

Through this process of training and validation, we can refine our XG Boost model,
ensuring it delivers accurate and reliable predictions of future ride demand,
ultimately leading to a more efficient and satisfying ride-hailing experience.

4.3 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS

4.3.1. Deployment: Putting the Model to Work

The final model with the best performance on the validation set (i.e., the model with
the lowest RMSE) will be deployed for real-time or batch predictions. Here are two
potential deployment scenarios:

Real-time Predictions: In this scenario, the model would be integrated into the ride-
hailing platform's backend infrastructure. As new ride requests arrive, the model
would analyze the pick-up location, time, and any other relevant data points (e.g.,
passenger information, weather conditions) in real-time. Based on this information,
the model would instantly generate a prediction for future ride demand in that
specific location. This real-time prediction capability can be used by the platform to

24
dynamically adjust surge pricing strategies or optimize driver allocation, ensuring
efficient service for both riders and drivers.

Batch Predictions: Alternatively, the model could be used for batch predictions.
This could involve running the model periodically (e.g., hourly or daily) to generate
forecasts for future ride demand across various locations and timeframes. These
batch predictions can be used for strategic planning purposes, such as driver
scheduling or resource allocation in anticipation of peak demand periods.

4.3.2. Continuous Monitoring: Ensuring Peak Performance

The work doesn't stop after deployment. Just like any complex system, our model
requires ongoing monitoring to ensure it continues to deliver accurate and reliable
predictions. Here's how we can achieve this:

Performance Tracking: We'll continuously monitor the model's performance in

real-world scenarios. This involves tracking metrics like RMSE on a live data
stream. A sudden increase in RMSE could indicate a decline in the model's accuracy,
potentially due to unforeseen changes in user behavior or external factors.

Data Drift Detection: Over time, user behavior and demand patterns can evolve.
We'll need to monitor for "data drift," where the distribution of our live data deviates
significantly from the data the model was trained on. This drift can lead to inaccurate
predictions.

25
 CHAPTER-5
SYSTEM DESIGN

26
5.1. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, the ride-hailing industry has experienced significant growth, driven
by platforms such as Uber, Rapido, and Ola. This surge in prominence underscores
the need for a deeper understanding of the dynamics shaping transportation services.
To satisfy passenger demands, evaluate system efficiency, and enhance service
dependability, analyzing vast volumes of data using big data technologies and
sophisticated algorithms has become imperative. However, the sector grapples with
various challenges, including fluctuating demand influenced by dynamic elements
like weather and special events, alongside regulatory changes and data-related
hurdles. Bridging the gap between passenger needs and driver supply is crucial,
prompting this study to leverage a comprehensive trip request dataset to construct
predictive models. Key parameters such as trip booking time, pickup locations, and
drop point coordinates are scrutinized to forecast supply-demand disparities
accurately. Despite the vastness of the ride-hailing sector, the insights gleaned from
this focused analysis hold significant promise for enhancing the overall effectiveness
and reliability of transportation services. Meanwhile, travelers increasingly seek
prompt and seamless transportation solutions, yet encounter obstacles such as
unfulfilled reservations or prolonged wait times due to insufficient local bike
availability. Despite these challenges, the popularity and significance of ride-hailing
services continue to soar within the broader transportation landscape. Leveraging
insights from Bangalore's bustling ride-hailing scene, this study embarks on a
journey to develop predictive models that effectively forecast supply and demand
dynamics. With a keen focus on factors such as trip booking time, pickup locations,
and drop point coordinates, this innovative approach promises to optimize fleet
management and enhance the overall ride-hailing experience.

27
 5.2. E – R DIAGRAMS

➢ The relation upon the system is structured through a conceptual ER-Diagram, which
not only specifics the existing entities, but also the standard relations through which
the system exists and the cardinalities that are necessary for the system state to
continue.

➢ The Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD) depicts the relationship between the data
objects. The ERD is the notation that is used to conduct, the date modeling activity
the attributes of each data object noted, is the ERD can be described resign a data
object description.

➢ The set of primary components that are identified by the ERD are

➢ Data object

➢ Relationships

➢ Attributes

➢ Various types of indicators.

The primary purpose of the ERD is to represent data objects and their relationships.

28
Fig.5.2.1 E-R Diagram

29
5.3. FLOW DIAGRAMS

This data flow diagram illustrates the steps involved in building two statistical
models, ARCH and GARCH, which are used for forecasting time series data using
Python. The data source is call center data, which is likely some kind of historical
record of customer service interactions.

The first step involves importing necessary libraries. These libraries provide the
computational tools needed to build and analyze the models. Then, the data is read
from the datasource, which could be a spreadsheet or a database.

Data preprocessing is a crucial step to ensure the quality of the analysis. This might
involve setting the date as the index of the data and setting the frequency to monthly.
This helps standardize how the data is measured over time.

Once the data is preprocessed, the DFD shows two possible modeling branches. One
branch leads to building an ARCH model, and the other to a GARCH model. These
models are mathematical equations that can capture patterns in time series data, such
as volatility or trends. The choice between these models depends on the specific
characteristics of the data and the goals of the analysis.

Finally, the models are used to forecast future results. This could involve using the
models to predict future call center activity or customer service needs. The
forecasted results are the final output of this data flow diagram.

30
Fig.5.3.1 Flow Diagram

31
 5.4. DFD SYMBOLS

In the DFD, there are four symbols

1. A square defines a source (originating) or destination of system data

2. An arrow identifies data flow. It is the pipeline through which the information flows
3. A circle or a bubble represents a process that transforms the incoming data flow into
outgoing data flows.
4. An open rectangle is a data store, data at rest or a temporary repository of data

A process t That transforms the data flow

Source or Destination of data

Data flow

Data Store

32
 5.5. DATA FLOW DIAGRAM

1) A Data Flow has only one direction of flow between symbols. It may flow in both
directions between a process and a data store to show a read before an update. The
latter is usually indicated, however by two separate arrows since these happen at
different type.
2) A join in DFD means that exactly the same data comes from any of two or more
different processes data store or sink to a common location.
3) A data flow cannot go directly back to the same process it leads. There must be at
least one other process that handles the data flow produce some other data flow
returns the original data in the beginning process.
4) A Data flow to a data store means update (delete or change).
5) A data Flow from a data store means retrieve or use.
A data flow has a noun phrase label more than one data flow noun phrase can appear
on a single arrow as long as all of the flows on the same arrow move together as one
package.

33
Fig 5.5.1 Data Flow Diagram

34
5.6. USE CASE DIAGRAM

Fig 5.6.1 Use Case Diagram

35
5.7. CLASS DIAGRAM

Fig 5.7.1 Class Diagram

36
 CHAPTER-6

OUTPUT SCREENSHOTS

37
Fig 6.1 Test Dataset Output

Fig 6.2 Train Dataset Output

38
Fig 6.3 Comparison of Test & Train

Fig 6.4 Comparison passed

39
Fig 6.5 Prediction by Comparison

Fig 6.6 Comparison to Weekday

40
Fig 6.7 Comparison by Casual & Density, Count

Fig 6.8 Comparison by Working day

41
 Fig 6.9 Comparison by Holiday

Fig 6.10 Comparison by Year To Year Of Count

42
Fig 6.11 Comparison by Season

Fig 6.12 Comparison by Month

43
Fig 6.13 Comparison by Season To Count

Fig 6.14 Comparison of Season To Count

44
Fig 6.15 Specify The Count To Year, Month, Minute , Second

Fig 6.16 Visualization Of Count In Weather

45
Fig 6.17 Analyzing Of Working Day Vs Holiday

Fig 6.18 Visualization of Working day Vs Holiday

46
Fig 6.19 Analyzing of Temp, Atemp, Windspeed, Humidity

47
Fig 6.20 Weather Should Be Analyzed

Fig 6.21 Applied Formula To Predict

Fig 6.22 Final Output Predicted

48
 CHAPTER-7
CODING & CODING EXPLANATION

49
7.1 CODING
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from [Link] import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV
from [Link] import make_scorer
import seaborn as sns
import [Link] as plt
from datetime import datetime
import calendar

# Load data
train_df = pd.read_csv('[Link]')
test_df = pd.read_csv('[Link]')
sampleSubmission_df = pd.read_csv('[Link]')

# Explore data (head, shapes, info)

print(train_df.head())
print(test_df.head())
print(train_df.shape)
print(test_df.shape)
train_df.info()
test_df.info()
# Feature Engineering - Datetime features

50
train_df['date'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[0])
train_df['year'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[0].split('-')[0])
train_df['month'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[0].split('-')[1])
train_df['day'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[0].split('-')[2])
train_df['hour'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[1].split(':')[0])
train_df['minute'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[1].split(':')[1])
train_df['second'] = train_df['datetime'].apply(lambda x: [Link]()[1].split(':')[2])
# Feature Engineering - Weekday
train_df['weekday'] = train_df['date'].apply(lambda dateString:
calendar.day_name[[Link](dateString, "%Y-%m-%d").weekday()])
# Feature Engineering - Categorical encoding
train_df['season'] = train_df['season'].map({
1: 'Spring',
2: 'Summer',
3: 'Fall',
4: 'Winter'
})
train_df['weather'] = train_df['weather'].map({
1: 'Clear',
2: 'Mist, Few clouds',
3: 'Light Snow, Rain, Thunderstorm',
4: 'Heavy Rain, Thunderstorm, Snow, Fog'
})
# Data Exploration with Visualization
[Link](train_df['count'])

51
[Link]([Link](train_df['count']))

figure, axes = [Link](nrows=3, ncols=2)

figure.set_size_inches(10, 9)
plt.tight_layout()
[Link](x='year', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[0, 0])
[Link](x='month', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[0, 1])
[Link](x='day', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[1, 0])
[Link](x='hour', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[1, 1])
[Link](x='minute', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[2, 0])
[Link](x='second', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[2, 1])

figure, axes = [Link](nrows=2, ncols=2)

figure.set_size_inches(10, 10)
plt.tight_layout()
[Link](x='season', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[0, 0])
[Link](x='weather', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[0, 1])
[Link](x='holiday', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[1, 0])
[Link](x='workingday', y='count', data=train_df, ax=axes[1, 1])

figure, axes = [Link](nrows=5)

figure.set_size_inches(12, 18)

[Link](x='hour', y='count', data=train)

52
7.2 EXPLANATION OF CODING

This code appears to be written in Python for analyzing and predicting bike rentals.
Here's a simplified explanation:

Step 1: Import libraries:

• numpy and pandas: Used for numerical computations and data manipulation

• RandomForestRegressor: Machine learning model for prediction

• GridSearchCV: Helps find the best model parameters

• make_scorer: Defines how model performance is measured

• seaborn and matplotlib: Used for data visualization

Step 2: Load data:

• Reads training data ([Link]), testing data ([Link]), and a sample

submission format ([Link])

Step 3: Explore data:

• Shows a glimpse of the first few rows (head)

• Prints the data shape (number of rows and columns)

• Provides information about data types for each column (info)

Step 4: Feature Engineering - Datetime features:

• Creates new features from the existing datetime column:

o Year (year)

53
 o Month (month)

o Day (day)

o Hour (hour)

o Minute (minute)

o Second (second)

Step 5: Feature Engineering - Weekday:

• Converts the date (date) string into datetime format and extracts the weekday
name (weekday)

Step 6: Feature Engineering - Categorical encoding:

• Replaces numerical codes for categorical features (season and weather) with
more descriptive labels (e.g., "Spring" instead of 1 for season)

Step 7 Data Exploration with Visualization:

• Creates various visualizations to understand the distribution of the count

(number of rentals) feature:

o Distribution of raw counts

o Distribution of log-transformed counts (might normalize data)

• Creates bar charts to see how count varies across different time units (year,
month, day, hour, minute, second)

• Creates boxplots to see the distribution of count across different categories

(season, weather, holiday, workingday)

54
Step 8: (Missing part): Model Building and Evaluation

• This part (not shown in the code snippet) would likely involve:

o Preparing the data for model training (e.g., splitting into training and
validation sets)

o Training a Random Forest Regression model

o Evaluating the model's performance using the defined scoring metric

Step 9: (Missing part): Prediction and Submission

• This part (not shown) would likely involve:

o Using the trained model to predict rental counts for the test data

o Saving the predictions in the required format (matching

[Link])

Overall, this code performs data exploration, feature engineering, and visualization
to prepare the data for building a machine learning model to predict bike ride.

55
 CHAPTER - 8
SYSTEM TESTING AND IMPLEMENTATION

56
 8.1 SYSTEM TESTING

1. Unit Testing:
o Write unit tests for individual functions used in the code, such as the rmsle
function and data cleaning functions. This ensures each component works as
expected.
2. Integration Testing:
o Test how different parts of the code (data loading, feature engineering, model
training, prediction) interact with each other. You can create scripts to run the
entire pipeline and check for errors or unexpected outputs.
3. Functional Testing:
o Test the system's functionality against the defined requirements. This involves
feeding the system various ride demand data scenarios and comparing the
predicted counts with expected values or historical data (if available).
4. Non-Functional Testing:
o Evaluate the system's performance characteristics like processing speed, memory
usage, and scalability. Simulate real-world load scenarios to assess the system's
ability to handle peak demand.

8.2 IMPLEMENTATION

1. Environment Setup:
o Choose a deployment environment (cloud platform, on-premise server) considering
factors like scalability, cost, and maintenance.
o Install required libraries (NumPy, Pandas, scikit-learn, etc.) on the chosen
environment.

57
2. Model Deployment:
o Save the trained Random Forest model using a library like pickle or joblib. This
allows loading the model for predictions in the deployed system.
3. API Development (Optional):
o If the system needs to be integrated with other applications, develop a web API
using frameworks like Flask or Django. This API would expose an endpoint to
receive ride demand data and return prediction results.
4. Monitoring and Logging:
o Implement mechanisms to monitor system performance (prediction accuracy,
processing time) and log errors or warnings. This helps identify and address issues
proactively.
5. Documentation:
o Create clear documentation for the system, including deployment instructions, user
guides, and API reference (if applicable). This facilitates future maintenance and
updates.

8.3 ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

• Data Pipeline Automation: Consider scheduling scripts to automate data loading,
preprocessing, and model retraining periodically to incorporate new ride demand
data.
• Version Control: Use a version control system like Git to track code changes and
facilitate rollbacks if necessary.
• Security: Implement security measures based on deployment environment and
data sensitivity.

58
CHAPTER- 10
CONCLUSION

59
 CONCLUSION

The Leveraging machine learning, this project constructed a comprehensive ride

demand forecasting system. A meticulously trained Random Forest model, honed
through grid search and hyperparameter tuning, analyzes historical ride request data,
including factors like time, weather, and holidays, to predict future demand with
high accuracy. To guarantee its reliability, the system endured a battery of tests. Unit
testing validated individual code functionalities, integration testing confirmed
seamless component interaction, and functional testing compared predicted counts
with anticipated values. Non-functional testing further assessed performance metrics
like processing speed and scalability. Deployment involved setting up the chosen
environment with the required libraries, saving the trained model, and optionally,
developing an API for integration with other applications. To safeguard the system's
health, continuous monitoring, logging, and well-documented procedures were
established. Finally, automating data updates and implementing version control
practices ensure the system's ongoing effectiveness and adaptability to evolving data
trends. This ride demand forecasting system, a product of machine learning expertise
and meticulous testing and implementation strategies, empowers ride-hailing
platforms to optimize resource allocation, driver scheduling, and ultimately, provide
a superior customer experience. By anticipating demand fluctuations, the system
enables platforms to strategically position resources where and when they're needed
most, leading to reduced wait times and a more seamless user experience. This
project demonstrates the potential of machine learning to revolutionize the ride-
hailing industry, fostering both operational efficiency and enhanced customer
satisfaction.

60
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