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Urban mobility and public transport: future perspectives and review

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Urban mobility and public transport: future

perspectives and review

Avishai (Avi) Ceder

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES
https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2020.1799846

REVIEW ARTICLE

Urban mobility and public transport: future perspectives and

review
Avishai (Avi) Cedera,b
a
Transportation Research Institute, Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel; bTransportation
Research Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

The purpose of this work is to review urban transportation likely to be Received 2 March 2019
offered in the future. Trip-making behaviour has already changed Accepted 16 July 2020
considerably as lifestyles change and they will continue to change in
KEYWORDS
the future. This work reflects and places emphasis on profound Future urban mobility; public
thinking about the possibilities, rather than predicting them. transport; private car;
Thoughts about possibilities for the future draw upon imagination, innovative travel modes;
perceived and justified feasibility, and lessons gained from the past. mode shift
This work attempts to capture the possibilities, logistics and travel
modes of future urban transportation. A visionary, feasibility-related
approach grounded in a realist perspective is proposed, only
conceptually, to explore plausible visions for the future. In addition,
this work shows the inefficiency of using private cars (PCs) and
argues that in the development of autonomous and electric vehicles,
PCs cannot provide a solution competitive with the potential that
urban transportation systems have for the future. Hence, the
solutions for the future must be based on public transport (PT)
modes of travel, regardless of whether they are metro, bus, light rail,
tram, ridesharing services, an ordinary taxi, personal rapid transit, or
any other PT-based future mode. The key principal of operation for
the mobility of a smart city will be the ability to optimize the
connectivity of movement in order to approach a seamless move,
while endowing the phrase door-to-door travel with new meaning.
Finally, it would be remiss not to mention the unforeseeable
implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for future mobility, more
controllable by automation of non-privately owned vehicle, and with
the prospect of people demonstrating a greater inclination towards
changing their habits, behaviour, and thinking paradigms.

Highlights

. Discussing the evolution of automated vehicles characterized by excessive confusion

. Review of decisions, trends, automated transit networks, modelling and technologies
. Importance of developing sustainable mobility based on public transit vehicles
. Visionary, feasibility-related and realist perspective-based conceptual approach
. Future mobility implications of Covid-19 using automation of non-private vehicles

CONTACT Avishai (Avi) Ceder [email protected] Transportation Research Institute, Technion – Israel Institute of
Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel; Transportation Research Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland,
New Zealand
This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.
© 2020 The Institute of Urban Sciences
2 A. CEDER

This work reflects and places emphasis on profound thinking about the possibilities of
future urban mobility for people, rather than presuming to predict. Without a doubt,
we are on the verge of a dramatic change in urban mobility. However, the evolution of
automated/autonomous vehicles (AVs) currently reflects tremendous confusion. Thus,
moving in any particular research direction is like moving in a maze. Precisely, for this
reason, it is important to think of possibilities for the future, and thereby shed some
light on further directions for research. These possibilities, naturally, are the product of
a mix of imagination, perceived and justified feasibility, and lessons gained from the
past. These ingredients serve the purpose of this work. Another distinct theme is the
future of urban transportation of goods. Although they may both have a share in the
future infrastructure, the movement of goods will not be addressed in this study. None-
theless, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for future mobility beg mentioning.
Certainly, they will have to address mobility of goods and freight. Yet, this is a subject
for another study. Nevertheless, previously existing options for future passenger mobility
may contribute, under the Covid-19 pandemic, to rethinking, with a window of opportu-
nity in which people may become more inclined to changing their habits, behaviour, and
thinking paradigms, and to accepting new, automated, healthier, and improved means of
urban mobility.
The work is fivefold. The first section presents thoughts and elements which led to the
selection of the themes presented in this work. They are the major themes required, in the
author’s view, to portray the possible logistics and modes of future urban trips. The second
section relates to the major players expected to have an impact on future urban mobility.
The third section reviews and discusses four themes of recent studies. The fourth section
conceptually proposes, three perspectives for studies on future urban mobility, and the
fifth section highlights economic perspectives of future urban transportation, from the
user, operator and community/government viewpoints. The work ends with concluding
remarks.

1. Overview of future mobility-related aspects of transportation

Information of interest on future mobility appeared in the Business Insider (Tech) (2016)
in which BI Intelligence reported that 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road by
2020. There are two different types of self-driving cars: semi-autonomous and fully auton-
omous. A semi-autonomous vehicle can accelerate, brake, and steer a car’s course with
limited driver interaction. A fully autonomous vehicle can drive between two points
and encounter the entire range of on-road scenarios without any driver interaction. Is
this figure of 10 million realistic? The same question is asked by Piper (2020) with the
comment that the year 2020 is here, and the self-driving cars are not. Certainly, there is
good cause for introducing autonomous vehicles to reduce car accidents. The rhetorical
question, however remains – will this help reduce urban traffic congestion, pollution,
waste of time, noise, and inefficiencies in terms of capacity and space consumption?

1.1. Urbanization trends

The world population has grown from 1 billion people in 1804 to 7.8 billion people in
2020. It is predicted that by 2050 the world population will rise to 9.8 billion, an increase
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 3

of 2 billion people compared to 2020, according to the United Nations (2014) Report. The
time needed for an increase of 1 billion people will be rapidly reduced. Moreover, accord-
ing to this report, more than half the world’s population already resides in cities. It also
shows that there are presently, approximately 3 billion people in rural areas, and that
number is expected to remain the same in 2050. Growth is expected to take place
almost exclusively in cities. As a means of comparison, it is notable that in 1950, there
were 1.8 billion people in rural areas vs. 0.8 billion in urban areas. Half of the population
of Asia, is predicted to live in cities by 2020. While there are currently 28 cities in the world
with more than 10 million people, that number is expected to reach 56 around 2050
(United Nations, 2014).
Urban transportation has a long history. The first metro system was established in 1890
in London. Metro is also referred to as subway, underground and U-Bahn. Today there are
metro systems in approximately 150 cities in 55 countries.. Contemporary urban mobility
is characterized by traffic congestion, pollution, waste of time, noise, and considerable
inefficiency in terms of capacity and space consumption on the scale required to enable
a modern urban economy to function productively. The utilization of cars in urban
areas accounts for only less than 5% of a car’s lifespan. This indicates that 95% of the
time, the car is parked while consuming precious urban space. This can be further
observed in Figure 3 of a report (Growth within, 2015) describing the waste of the mobility
system, which also appears in Foth (2018). Accordingly, it is unquestionable that urban
mobility solutions will gain more and more attention.
From the human perspective, there is no doubt that people, by nature, seek to improve
their quality of life. Encyclopedia Britannica defines quality of life (QoL) as the degree to
which an individual is healthy, comfortable, and able to participate in, or enjoy life events.
In other words, QoL of individuals or groups is directly related to satisfaction resulting
from improvement of social, economic, psychological, and health conditions. Schneider,
Guo, and Schroeder (2013) investigated the component of transportation within QoL
and found that it plays an important and consistent role. More specifically, seven impor-
tant areas were identified which are indicative of a connection to QoL-related satisfaction.
These are: (i) access to destination; (ii) physical layout of the transportation system; (iii)
mobility of people from one place to another; (iv) transparency in terms of communi-
cation, finances and planning; (v) safety in terms of physical conditions and human behav-
iour; (vi) environmental issues related to air and light; and (vii) implications of
maintenance outcomes, in terms of repairs and surface conditions.
As opposed to riding in rural areas, the increasing rhythm of urban life causes people to
appreciate time saved, reduced fares, and increased convenience, or succinctly put, the
value of time, fare, and convenience (TFC). In the use of public transport, regardless of
whether it is metro, bus, light rail, tram, ridesharing services, or an ordinary taxi, the cus-
tomer is not interested in the routing as much as in the TFC. Consequently, future urban
transportation will be attractive and successful if delivering a satisfactory TFC related
travel system.

1.2. Innovations and technologies

The past several decades have been witness to revolutions which have dramatically altered
all prior practices, especially in communications, and have forged a whole new culture,
4 A. CEDER

including changes in language and behaviour. New players are entering the mobility
market and people are increasingly inclined to consider their mobility options. The Inter-
net and cellular phones have altered the way we live. These two revolutions have far reach-
ing consequences, especially for the rapid development of technologies supporting them,
such as: fast switching, mobile broadband, smartphone penetration, self-healing distribu-
ted wireless and mobile networks, proximity and location technologies, nanotechnologies,
motion control, mobile and miniscule power supplies, new user interfaces and experi-
ences. These developments are all seeping into the world of urban transportation.
The United Nations Report (2014) indicates that over 70% of the land for which urban
use is projected by 2040, remains to be built. Among the major questions this raises is how
to serve people’s needs for mobility in these foreseeable developments, while considering
the wellbeing of individuals and societies. To that end, one can think of the need for inno-
vative travel systems while recalling that the car was not invented by improving animal-
drawn carriages.
The year 1886 is regarded as the year in which the modern car by the German inventor
Karl Benz was born. Its mass production started in the 1920s, some 40 years later. The high
speed rail service at 250 km/h introduced in 1964 in Japan was called the bullet train.
Many countries have since developed high speed rail including: Austria, Belgium,
China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, Russia, South Korea, Spain,
Sweden, Turkey, UK, U.S.A., and Uzbekistan. It is interesting to note that today, in
2020, high speed rail lines (minimum of 200 km/h) exist only in Asia and Europe, but
not in the U.S.A. The fastest train in the US is Amtrak’s Acela Express that can attain
240 km/h, but only for some parts of the lines, with an average speed less than 150 km/
h. Currently, there are approximately 30,000 km of high speed rail throughout the
world, two-thirds of which are in China. High speed rail crosses international borders
only in Europe. Nonetheless, high speed rail is unlikely to serve urban transportation
needs, and thus other mobility solutions will be required.
It is likely that new mobility urban transport solutions will combine mobility com-
ponents with the following list of technologies:

. Machine-to-Machine (M2M) global, always-on connectivity platform, including robust

real time billing, engine rating, and a cloud based management framework.
. Networked computer control systems using real time technology and advanced safety.
. Real time traffic information system connected to driver services in vehicles, mobile and
online devices.
. Software-as-a-Service, (SaaS)-based platform for intelligent integration of location
technology, information and services.
. Real time machine learning technologies applied to the Internet of Things (IoT) and in
M2M.
. Human–computer interaction technologies based on natural language talk, and using
integrated intelligent voice command systems.
. Social, online ridesharing communities with intelligent matching technologies between
travel requests and available seats.
. Sensors and machine vision technology for automated driving technology.
. Advanced wireless sensor technologies and software for Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X)
environments to support intelligent transportation services.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 5

Future developments for urban transportation needs are already reflected in a vast
quantity of articles. Although we cannot change the direction of the wind (evolution of
lifestyles, land use patterns), we can adjust the sails (create attractive TFC-based
systems that will naturally shift people from the automobile to other forms of travel).
This sail adjustment will rely heavily on the ongoing development of new technologies.
Generally speaking, innovative urban travel technologies will be based on three major
objectives:

. Increasing the productivity of urban transport, particularly through the introduction of

automation.
. Improving safety, performance and service capabilities, and achieving this in a cost-
effective manner.
. Supporting priorities such as energy conservation, safety, central city revitalization, and
environmental protection at the national level.

1.3. Definition and importance of urban public transport

The shifts we need in order to respond to increased adverse effects of private cars should
include new public transport modes with enhanced TFC satisfaction (Camacho, Foth, &
Rakotonirainy, 2013). For instance, perhaps all cars inside cities should be electric and dri-
verless, owned and operated by an assets company. City residents could page a car to take
them wherever they choose. Driverless buses of different sizes will move efficiently, and
automatically charge low fares. No cars will be parked on city streets. There will be no
noise generated by horns and engines. Small rapid transit vehicles will serve city dwellers,
enabling merged arrangements which will be considered as modular. Furthermore, the
vehicles will draw power from an electromagnetic grid that will line every street, and
extend up the sides of buildings. The infrastructure will bring new meaning to door-to-
door travel. This is a feasible example of how urban transportation may operate in the future.
Table 1 contains the definitions for public transport (PT) and private cars (PCs) based
on leading web dictionaries. This provides some insight into the vast connotations that
may be applied in different contexts, when defining two comparable, yet different
modes of travel. It should contribute to comprehending the slightly different perspectives
and variations on people’s understanding these two modes of travel. By relaxing PT
definitions and dropping fixed routes, we claim that any travel system available for
public use, for both ordinary vehicles and AVs, is public transport service (also referred
to as PT, public transportation, public transit, mass transit, or just transit). If we avoid
allowing conventional systems to obstruct our imagination, elevators are also a sort of
PT, moving vertically, with mostly zero fare. By the same token, we can certainly
include future, on-demand, computerized, driverless, electrical family vehicles within
the PT. These future PT modes can carry individuals or groups of people and will be avail-
able for the public with a fare charged electronically. Almost certainly, all of the definitions
in Table 1 will have to be revised and adapted to accommodate all of the members of the
PT family including the use of automated/autonomous public transport vehicles (APTVs).
Accordingly, the foreseeable future modes of urban transportation will rely on PT modes
as is also explained by Currie (2018).
6 A. CEDER

Table 1. Web definitions of public transport, private cars, and their variants.
Definition of Public Transport/ Transit/ Public Transportation/ Mass Transit
Cambridge English Dictionary:
A system of vehicles such as buses and trains that operate at regular times on fixed routes and are used by the public.
Dictionary.com
Any form of transportation that charges set fares, runs fixed routes, and are available to the public such as buses, subways,
ferries, and trains.
Merriam-Webster Dictionary:
The system that is used for moving large numbers of people on buses, trains, etc.
Collins Dictionary:
A system of buses, trains, etc. running on fixed routes, on which the public may travel.
Oxford Dictionary:
Buses, trains, and other forms of transport that are available to the public, charge set fares, and run on fixed routes.
Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary:
A system of buses, trains, etc. provided by the government or by companies, which people use to travel from one place to
another.
Definition of Private Car/ Private Passenger Automobile/Private Passenger Car/ Private Transport
Merriam-Webster Dictionary:
A passenger car assigned for private use.
Oxford Dictionary:
A motor car owned and used privately.
BusinessDictionary.com:
Any kind of automobile used to transport private passengers, including a van, which has been approved for use on public
motorways.
Insuranceopedia:
A private passenger car, in the context of insurance, is an automobile used for private needs as opposed to business uses.
These vehicles are generally defined as having only four wheels, and they do not carry passengers for money.
The Law Dictionary:
The transportation of private individuals is undertaken in private passenger automobiles.

1.4. Smart cities

Urban growth acceleration should enable healthier and more productive lives than in rural
locations. It should also encourage economic growth. This trend towards urban popu-
lation concentration needs to be recognized by society and governments.
Undoubtedly, an important element of smart cities is to have a sustainable urban mobi-
lity system. Understanding the future composition of smart cities ought to consider a per-
spective in which environment, society, and economics are integrated (James, Magee,
Scerri, & Steger, 2015). Yigitcanlar, Foth, and Kamruzzaman (2019a) discuss the built-
up generations of advanced cities by indicating first generation as intelligent cities,
second generation as smart cities, third generation as responsive cities, and claims the
fourth generation to be combined smart and sustainable cities. The authors believe that
the future will change the shape of cities, societies, and the environment with humans
and non-humans in a sustainable manner, in what they call ‘post-anthropocentric cities
of tomorrow’. Yigitcanlar, Kamruzzaman, Foth, and da Costa (2019b) reviewed the litera-
ture on smart cities and sustainable cities, and based on the literature, point out the direc-
tion of cities towards becoming firstly sustainable, before secondly becoming sustainable
and smart.
Cities have already begun to benefit from the impact of advanced communication
technology. In addition to travel by vehicles, the lifestyle of mobility in future smart
cities will also involve walking and cycling. New urban mobility services, such as innova-
tive ride-selling and ridesharing apps, will appear and merge. The key principle of mobility
operations for a smart city will be the ability to optimize the connectivity of movement, on
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 7

in order to approach a seamless move (Ceder, 2016; Wolff, Heller, Corwin, Bansal, &
Pankratz, 2020) while investing new meaning into the expression door-to-door travel.
The approach to seamless travel (Wolff et al., 2020) will presumably rely on modelling
and optimization techniques. Contemporary and foreseeable technologies, with the help of
robotics and real time control schemes will enable this seamless travel. This will undoubt-
edly enhance TFC travel satisfaction.

2. Essential elements to impact future urban transportation

Today’s urban transportation systems are surrounded with various new and innovative
elements, such as social media and networks, big data, artificial intelligence, biotechnol-
ogy, robotics, visual reality, smart infrastructure, electrical vehicles, solar vehicles, auton-
omous vehicles, modularity integration. All of these emerging new technologies will have
an important impact on the shaping of next generation, urban transportation systems.
This section identifies and provides an initial understanding of the emerging, major,
essential elements which will play an important role in developing future urban transpor-
tation. According to their characteristics, these major essential elements are classified into
five layers: intelligent technologies, social networking, travel modes, economy and inte-
gration as graphically illustrated in Figure 1.

2.1. Intelligent technologies

The application of intelligent technologies, especially intelligent transportation systems
(ITS) technologies, in transportation planning, operations, and AVs can significantly
improve operation efficiency and level of service of existing transportation systems.

Figure 1. Five layers of elements essential for having an impact on future urban transportation.
8 A. CEDER

This can be attained by increased connectivity, synchronization, and far more attractive,
user-oriented, system optimal, smart and sustainable, next generation, urban transpor-
tation systems.
Essentially, the new technologies should pursue the goal of a prudent, well connected
PT system. The rapid development of information and communication technology
(ICT) modernizes the image of traditional transportation systems and opens the door
to dispatch vehicles, ordinary or AV, dynamically and in a communication based, con-
nected vehicle environment. Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication is an emerging
technology. It is recognized as an important component of ITS and is already widely
used in the transportation field. V2V communication technology is based on Vehicular
Ad-Hoc Network (VANET) technology, which can improve the communication capacity
and operations of vehicles by treating each vehicle as a mobile node in a communication
network.
V2V communication technology enables drivers, using ordinary vehicles, to share their
vehicle location, speed, direction, and passenger information with their peers in the same
communication group. One earlier application of this intelligent technology is the Com-
munication Based Train Control (CBTC) system that is employed to increase the train line
capacity by safely reducing the headway between trains travelling along a given line
(Pascoe & Eichorn, 2009 Zeng, Wang, & Zhang, 2007). Transfer based vehicle-to-
vehicle communication architecture has been proposed by Liu, Ceder, Ma, and Guan
(2014) for increasing PT service reliability.
With the advancement of computer technology, biotechnology and big data, Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and advanced computing techniques will have extended applications for
transportation. New AI techniques, such as data driven computing, cloud computation,
Internet of Things, can be applied to solve large scale, complex and real world transpor-
tation planning, management, control problems. Robotics and visual reality in transpor-
tation are also promising application areas for AI techniques. The use of these AI-based
intelligent technologies is part of AV development.

2.2. Social networking

Emerging social networking technologies, both those being implemented now and those to
be implemented in the near future, are surrounding us at an increased pace. The social
media and smartphone app revolutions are creating a technological breakaway from con-
ventional practices affecting every aspect of life. It is an implacably progressive revolution
and so affects PT planning and operations, as well. Social media have been shown to have
particular advantages compared to conventional information systems in providing real
time information. New tools, such as Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, enable and
enhance real time, two-way communication between large groups of people and agencies,
which can help to reduce passenger anxiety and allow informed choices. In order to effec-
tively meet the ever-increasing and diversified mobility needs of citizens, some interactive
social networking information platforms, such as Internet websites, telephone and smart-
phone apps, can be used to provide new and innovative modes of advanced, personalized
and flexible demand-interactive PT service.
An important feature of social media is the use of apps for communication with PT
operators (Camacho et al., 2013). Ceder and Jiang (2019) show how to have a combined
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 9

system of seamless mobility with human preferences based on well-designed apps inter-
acting with the PT operator in terms of sending preferences, receiving tailored infor-
mation, and optimally adjusting system operation and synchronization.

2.3. Travel modes

Travel mode is a term used to distinguish substantially different methods of transport.
There are many different kinds of travel modes which can be classified into three main
categories: air transport, water transport and land transport. Each category can be
further divided into sub-systems. There are also other special travel modes, such as pipe-
line transport, cable transport, and space transport.
The basic elements of PT systems that define different PT modes include Right-of-Way
(ROW), vehicle guidance, guided vehicle support, propulsion, driving and control, service-
type network and operations (Vuchic, 2005). The ROW element has different types:
street – fully separated, street – partially separated, and street with mixed traffic. The
ROW type is the most important element because it interacts with other elements.
Different service types of network structures and operations tactics have an important
impact on the service provided. The major operational tactics are: holding the vehicle
(at terminal or at mid-route point), skip-stop operation, changes in speed (within the
lawful speed limit), deadheading operation, short-turn operation, shortcut operation,
adding a reserve vehicle, and leapfrogging operation with the vehicle ahead of the one
under consideration. The working principles of each of the operational tactics are
described in detail by Ceder (2016).
With the rapid development of new technologies, such as information and telecommu-
nication technology (ICT), vehicle technology and propulsion technology, there are some
new travel modes. For example, maglev trains, which use magnetic levitation to move
vehicles without touching the ground, has already been tested in China, Germany and
Japan. The maglev trains in operation are currently found in: Shanghai Maglev, Linimo
(Tobu Kyuryo Line, Japan), Incheon Airport Maglev, and Changsha Maglev.

2.4. Economy
The design and implementation of a new mode of transportation system should consider
various economic factors, such as effectiveness, efficiency, productivity, pricing and equity.
In a PT system, these factors should simultaneously be considered from three perspectives:
the passenger perspective, the agency/operator perspective, and the community/munici-
pality/government perspective. These three perspectives emanate from the broad spec-
trum of PT activities, including online demand collection, network route design,
timetable development and vehicle and crew scheduling (for ordinary vehicles, not AVs).

2.5. Integration
The integration of these major essential elements in the PT operations planning process
can produce more advanced, attractive and reliable PT services. The need to transfer
between routes is a major cause of discomfort for PT users. Improving PT connectivity
is one of the most vital tasks in transit operations planning. A poor connection can
10 A. CEDER

cause some passengers to stop using the transit service. Synchronized PT timetables are
created to enable passengers to enjoy seamless, direct transfers, and thus improve the
level of PT systems’ service.. However, due to the dynamic, stochastic, and uncertain
nature of traffic, planned synchronized PT transfers do not always materialize. Missed
direct transfers will not only frustrate existing passengers, but result in a loss of potential
PT users. Service design criteria always contain postulates to improve routing and schedul-
ing coordination (intra-agency and interagency transfer centers/points and synchronized/
timed transfers). Ostensibly, the lack of well-defined connectivity measures precludes
weighing and quantifying the result of any coordination effort.
A study by Chowdhury and Ceder (2013) identified the attributes that can define a con-
nection as a planned transfer. According to their study, five attributes: network inte-
gration, integrated timed-transfer, integrated physical connection of transfers,
information integration, and fare and ticketing integration are recognized to be the essen-
tial elements of the definition of a planned transfer. On the contrary, an unplanned trans-
fer is defined as a connection that has been created without any guidance on how to make
the connection. One possible definition (Ceder, 2016) of a prudent, well-connected transit
path is: an advanced, attractive transit system that operates reliably and relatively rapidly,
with smooth (ease of) synchronized transfers, part of the door-to-door passenger chain.

3. Literature review
Recent years have witnessed intensive discussion in the literature about various issues
relating to future mobility and the future of PT. Naturally, much of this discussion con-
cerns technological development, whereas for other themes the discussion and research
were, and are, characterized by some confusion and lack of clarity about its relevancy.
Four themes in the literature review are applied to the attempt to attain a clearer
picture of recent research and discussion associated with future urban mobility and PT.
The following brief summary includes discussion of each study of these four themes
and a summary table is included at the end of this section.

3.1. Confusion about policy-making processes on future urban mobility

Foth (2018) raises the issue of lack of backing by political leadership in Australia for more
proactivism in significant decision-making processes on urban mobility. The author
observes that there is a belief that technological advances and innovations, e.g. of AVs
and ride sharing service, can independently resolve transport-related problems.
However, Foth (2018) emphasizes that there is a strong need for regulatory intervention
without which there is no guarantee for making mobility more sustainable and
economical.
Straub and Schaefer (2019) describe in a recent work an approach to deal with the
issue of the interaction between policy makers and the technological advance of AVs.
The authors raise the problematic perspectives of making policies for an unknown yet
automated system, and the development of new AV technologies to adjust to yet
unknown policies. Accordingly, there are two players, the policy makers and the tech-
nology developers. Straub and Schaefer (2019) suggest thinking of a way with real
time feedback on each player, similar to two dancers who need to modify their moves
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 11

according to what the other is doing. Generally speaking, this is an interesting analogy,
but lacks substantiation from the testing of scenarios required for decisions on optimal
developments. Questions, such as what if, produce multiple options for interpretation
and subsequent responses.
Legacy, Ashmore, Scheurer, Stone, and Curtis (2019) use intelligent arguments, review
and interview-based, in a search of how future urban area will consist of AV technology.
The authors draw a possible conclusion that the private sector, considerably more than the
public sector, will outline things to be done. In their study, Legacy et al. (2019) raise ques-
tions regarding whether urban planning can help in eliminating the undesirable impact of
AVs on the environment. However, this unknown umbrella of anticipated urban-planning
prospects leaves us with open-ended possibilities.
Cohen and Cavoli (2019) discuss whether or not governments should interfere in the
economic affairs of AVs. The authors suggest that the do-nothing approach may
produce less productive results than planned government intervention. Without real
proof, Cohen and Cavoli (2019) believe that the lack of government involvement will
result in an increasednumber of AVs with a higher chance of adding traffic congestion,
and a decline in accessibility for future mobility systems. This study proposes a set of cat-
egories for government interference comprised of planning and land use, regulations and
policy, infrastructure and technology, service provision and economic instruments.
However, there is no indication of the interactions between these categories and the
need for a research framework to connect these conceivable government initiatives and
progress of technology for the benefit of urban dwellers. Questions remain unanswered
and unanswerable for the present.
Bagloee, Ceder, Sarvi, and Asadi (2019) use a counterintuitive phenomenon called
Braess Paradox for considering the introduction of no-car zones in urban developed
areas. In effect, the authors show that by closing some roads, traffic circulation can
be improved by reduction of total travel time. Certainly, such initiatives can be com-
bined with the reduction of PC use, especially for the time of AV service availability.
Bagloee et al. (2019) formulated this problem of finding which roads to close, as a
bilevel, math programming problem. Their upper level formulation aims at selecting
the number of roads to be closed, and the lower level formulation uses the solution
of a traffic assignment problem. Because of the complexity of this problem, the
authors developed an efficient surrogate-based methodology for large-sized networks,
and tested it with real data of the road network of Winnipeg. The results favour this
idea of a no-car zone in major developed cities. Nonetheless, this study does not con-
sider the possibility of AV or APTV zones only in comparison to no-car zones, nor the
mixture of the two.
Singleton (2019) discusses the outcome of a few studies, by academia and industry,
about the expected reduction of the value of travel time, partly because of the increase
of travel time when using AVs. The author argues that this reduction of the value of
travel time will arrive not so much because of the extension of travel time, but
because of other, what he calls ‘positive utilities’. Singleton (2019) believes that AV
users will have less stress and a more relaxing atmosphere than those driving cars.
Unquestionably, these arguments will have to be examined and investigated before
any operative conclusion can be drawn. Meanwhile, a lack of clarity about this (and
other) issues prevails.
12 A. CEDER

3.2. Confusion about behavioural trends for future urban mobility

Carleton (2016a, 2016b) presents two profound studies about the fear of the unknown and
intolerance for uncertainty using emotion models. These theoretical and empirical studies
of human emotion show that fear of the unknown is a strong, basic fear forming the foun-
dation of anxiety and thus neuroticism. With this in mind, we can ask ourselves whether
the unknowns for future mobility may, or may not introduce some fears, or anxiety,
related to emotion in general. The subsequent question which begs asking is what research
should be conducted, and what decisions should be made to enable significantly improved
mobility for future smart cities.
Haboucha, Ishaq, and Shiftan (2017) studied the reaction of people to the appearance of
AVs. This is done by a stated preference survey in which 721 individuals were asked their
future choice given the availability of a mixture of ordinary (human driven), automated,
and shared, automated vehicles. In other words, they were asked to indicate their prefer-
ence for commuting by continuing to use privately owned cars or for a new, privately
owned AV, or a shared AV. Interestingly, results show that 44% of them prefer to continue
driving their ordinary cars, representing a significant hesitation to move to AVs. Do
people fear the unknown, and thus resist change?
Herb, Xiao, Circella, Mokhtarian, and Walker (2018) seek to project changes in travel-
ler behaviour upon travellers using AVs. In contrast to stated preferences’ survey studies,
the authors propose the use of an imitated self-driving system by a free, 7-day chauffeur
service in the San Francisco Bay area. In other words, instead of driving, the traveller has
someone available to make the desired trips. Herb et al. (2018) observed the characteristics
of these free-of-driving-task trips and found that in comparison to the usual trips made,
the number and mileage of trips increased as did the number of single-occupancy trips,
particularly in the evening. Thus, the question remains as to whether an increase of mobi-
lity in the era of AVs and APTVs can be expected, and if so, what the consequences will be.
Nair, Astroza, Baht, Khoeini, and Pendyala (2018) are developing a rank ordered model
for ranked data usually collected in a stated preference survey. As a model, it should best
represent survey results when asked to rank hypotetical alternatives. The authors are using
this model to attainthe results which contribute to their conclusions Nair et al. (2018) are
applying their model to a survey about alternative configurations of AVs and found differ-
ences in responses across certain socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics.
Thus, they draw the conclusion that ranked and preference-based choices made are not
so determined. In other words, people are not sure what to prefer, possibly because of
the unknown future of AVs and APTVs.
Stromberg, Karlsson, and Sochor (2018) examine a PT service, as inferred from the user
perspective, as a Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) system in Gothenburg, Sweden, using four
users groups based on sociodemographic characteristics. The MaaS system used is called
UbiGo. With a sample of 195 individuals, the authors found that there are positive indi-
cations allowing for reducing the use of privately owned cars, given that travellers will
obtain certain features from the service. Among the most important features found are
flexibility of service, and user need for it. The mode of service was not found to be a
key feature. This study, however, seems to be both site-specific, and system-specific.
Thus, these features cannot be trusted, in general, as strong incentives to make users
switch from PCs to PT.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 13

Feigon and Murphy (2018) attempt to investigate how the introduction of transpor-
tation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft in the U.S.A. will affect
changes in PT services, use of single-occupancy vehicles, and traffic congestion. The
authors report on a study with more than 10,000 users of PT and shared mobility.
Feigon and Murphy’s (2018) main results are: most TNC trips are in the evening and
on weekends, for short distances in the heart of the city; while PT users and users of
single-occupancy vehicles make their trips routinely. TNC users travel more irregularly.
The main reasons for ordinary PT users, e.g. bus, rail, to switch to TNCs are travel and
wait times. TNC users can be distinguished by income level, and correlated with the
reduction of car ownership. This is a typical result from a state-of-preference question-
naire. It raises doubts because it fails to test real decisions by users. Indeed, even for a
large sample of 10,000 people, it is not surprising that travel time and waiting time are
considered important factors. Yet, it still remains to see what will induce them to give
up their PCs entirely.

3.3. Confusion regarding continuing development of automated transit

networks (ATN)
ATN systems have a long history, starting with PRT in Morgantown, West Virginia in the
U.S.A., in 1975. The basic concept is similar to that of APTVs, but instead of being flexible
and running on roadways, the ATN are rail based. Schweizer, Mantecchini, and Green-
wood (2011) provide detailed comparisons and summaries of capacity estimations and
size characteristics for serial-type and sawtooth – type PRT stations. Station characteristics
have been modelled as a complex function by incorporating geometry, vehicle dynamics,
boarding strategies and user behaviour. Comparisons have been made between capacity
and space-efficiency with various load assumptions, using analytical and microsimulation
techniques. The subsequent results of this study will be useful for selecting the most suit-
able PRT station for a given space constraint and demand scenario. Nonetheless, the ques-
tion remains as to whether it is sensible to continue with this type of PT service.
McDonald (2013) has presented a comprehensive overview of PRT systems. This study
traces early PRT explorations through to the first implementation for public use of the
complete paradigm change for PT. The complex interrelationship between innovative
thinking in technology, communication systems, hardware, architecture, transportation,
and urban design/planning spanning the globe, has been discussed with specific examples
from various cities. However, over its 40-years, the ATN has yet to flourish due to cost and
difficulties in integrating with other PT modes. These difficulties seem to hold today as
well, and given the progress of APTVs, it is questionable if there is still room for continu-
ing to develop ATN.
Furman, Fabian, Ellis, Muller, and Swenson (2014) discuss and present the concept of
ATN in the context of urban planning/design and public policy. Also, subsequent projects
on this concept have been suggested for decision makers, in order to move forward to sus-
tainable urban transportation. The comprehensive report of Furman et al. (2014) outlines
and discusses unique features of ATN: (i) its ability to provide direct origin to destination
services without the need for transfers or stops at intermediate stations, (ii) small vehicle
size which can cater exclusively to an individual or a small group, (iii) demand driven
service functionality (as opposed to fixed service schedules), (iv) fully automated nature
14 A. CEDER

of service, and (v) other aspects relating to vehicle guideways and stations within a fully
connected network. The authors assert that ATN implementations require close
cooperation from many kinds of local officials, and most probably will be implemented
through a carefully negotiated Public-Private Partnership (PPP). Furthermore, the existing
niche applications of ATN, for example, at Heathrow Airport, has been presented, and the
extent to which the capabilities of these existing technologies can be expanded, has been
discussed. Future work has been recommended to identify the ultimate capabilities of
high-speed/high-capacity ATN. Doubts about ATN are still integral to the discussion of
this type of PT among decision makers, and there are still more questions than answers.
Another important aspect of ATN is the research on in-vehicle activities. Camacho,
Foth, Rakotonirainy, and Rittenbruch (2017) studied rail in-vehicle activities using a
theoretical framework consisting of the dynamics of the activities and the passengers’ per-
spective on ways these activities can be improved. The authors found that the activities are
affected by circumstantial elements, including sociocultural elements, making their theory
more complex and challenging.

3.4. Confusion regarding development of modelling and technologies

for future PT
Villagra, Milanés, Pérez, and Godoy (2012) present a novel approach to planning smooth
paths and speed profiles for APTVs in unstructured environments. The proposed
approach deals explicitly with efficiency and comfort of automated PT systems by devel-
oping a planning algorithm. This algorithm is comprised of three layers: (i) an optimal
local continuous curvature planner for obstacle-free situations; (ii) a global planner that
finds intermediate points to connect the configuration space to the desired degree,
taking obstacles into account; and (iii) a speed planner that uses the set of curves of the
previous layer to compute analytically a comfort-constrained profile of velocities and
accelerations. This system will therefore provide the APTV system with a priori knowledge
on the shortest path within a selected area that guarantees lateral accelerations and steer-
ing wheel speeds below given pre-set thresholds. Furthermore, the speed-profiler can
utilize semantic information from the path planner to set a continuous velocity reference,
which considers bounds on lateral and longitudinal accelerations consistent with comfort,
and a bound on longitudinal jerk. Real -life applications of the above features have been
undertaken and the results of the algorithms were found to be satisfactory in an APTV
when compared with real driving maneuvers performed by human drivers. Future work
has been proposed by the authors in order to include the path planner in an overall
control scheme in which an adapted, robust control algorithm can be used to track
both the planned path and the planned speed as closely as possible. This is an example
of a proper analytical development, yet to some extent, it is limited here to an isolated
system. Smart urban mobility is expected to be synchronized and coordinated with all
PT-related vehicles, and not built upon separate systems, similar to current, non-coordi-
nated, distinct and separate bus companies operating in the same city.
Cuddy et al. (2014) describe smart cities and discuss their potential for interfacing with
the emerging connected transportation environment. The authors aim to provide a well-
defined foundation for the U.S. Department of Transportation’s connected-vehicle pro-
gramme, in order to identify and exploit opportunities to help ensure that connected
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 15

vehicles and connected transportation fulfil their potential to improve safety, mobility and
environmental outcomes in a complexly interdependent and multimodal environment.
Furthermore, in order to understand the potential benefits of such a concept, this
report explains in detail the definition of a smart and connected city. The intelligent infra-
structure utilized by smart cities, such as devices and equipment which can sense the
environment and/or their own status, send data, and often, receive commands, along
with their potential transportation implications, has been reviewed and outlined. While
the connected intelligent infrastructure is indeed required, the lack of clarity regarding
types of APTVs and AVs using it, is an obstacle to defining a coherent plan supported
by decision makers. It is therefore left aside until the unknown should become known.
With the advancement of technologies, AVs and APTVs can be expected to operate on
the roads sometime in the future. VANET technologies can help to connect AVs so that
they can respond cooperatively to instantaneous situations. Lam, Leung, and Chu (2014)
and Lam, Leung, and Chu (2016) proposed a new, intelligent APTV system that can
manage a fleet of AVs to accommodate a set of travel requests and offer point-to-point
services with ridesharing. The APTV scheduling problem was formulated as a mixed
integer, linear programming problem, and the admission control problem was formulated
as a bi-level optimization problem. The scheduling problem was solved by existing com-
mercial optimizers, e.g. YALMIP and CPLEX. A genetic algorithm-based method was pro-
posed to solve the bi-level admission control problem. Taxi data collected from Boston,
MA were used to validate the performance of the solution methods. The study results
show that the new, intelligent APTV system with ridesharing can effectively reduce
total operational cost, and an increase of vehicular capacity can further enhance system
performance. This is another example of optimization of routing with shared APTVs,
but as an isolated fleet problem, without comparing with PCs and without coordination
with other APTVs.
Lam (2016) further studied the pricing issues for the multitenant APTV system consid-
ering benefits to PT users. Three types of services, including the splittable, non-splittable,
and private services, were investigated. The pricing process was modelled as combinatorial
auctions, where operators bid for providing the service requested by a customer. The
winner of the auction was determined by solving an integer linear programming
problem. A strategy-proof Vickrey-Clarke-Groves-based charging scheme was proposed
to settle the final charges for PT users. Extensive simulations were conducted to verify
the analytical results and evaluate the performance of the charging mechanism. This
study assumes user preference is to minimize cost where preferences change dynamically
among different people and all concerned, as well as for the same person, and for different
times for all involved. Thus, further analysis is required for applying it to smart cities.
Vazifeh, Santi, Resta, Strogatz, and Ratti (2018) show a potential saving of shared
APTVs with the use of novel network-based modelling. The authors introduced a new
concept of a vehicle-sharing network with an optimization procedure to minimize the
number of shared APTVs required for an on-demand service with no-waiting time/
Vazifeh et al. (2018) tested their modelling on extensive real taxi data for New York
City and found an impressive reduction of 30% of their fleet size. Certainly, as the
number of APTVs increases, the control of vehicles, with less variance on their travel
time, improves. In turn, this increases success in implementing advanced modelling.
This is intelligent modelling which can be used in simulation to check what if questions
16 A. CEDER

about different future mobility scenarios in order to provide some insight into the volume
of vehicles that should be able to accommodate future smart cities.
Finally, it is interesting to observe that in September 2015, the world’s first autonomous
bus (APTV) completed its trial operation on the intercity road from Zhengzhou to Kaifeng
in China. This APTV was designed by Yutong, China’s leading bus manufacturer, and
produced after three years of hard work. Covering a distance of 20 miles (32.6 km), the
intercity route from Zhengzhou to Kaifeng includes a total of 26 traffic lights. Despite
this, and heavy traffic, Yutong’s autonomous bus completed a series of highly complex
driving maneuvers, including automatic lane changes, overtaking and responding to
traffic signals. The APTV arrived at its destination without any human assistance, with
its highest speed reaching 42mph (68 km/h). The vehicle’s intelligent sensing system
boasts laser radar and cameras on four sides of the vehicle, which forms a panoramic
360-degree view and provides a response for driving information needs subject to
various complex road conditions. In addition, the vehicle’s driving system is operated
by its master controller, which issues orders for acceleration, deceleration, or coming to
a complete stop before it reaches a traffic light, depending on the colour of signal dis-
played. This is an example of a technologically feasible APTV that continuous to arrive,
but without a clear idea on how to be integrated with intelligent infrastructure.

3.5. Summary table of literature review

Table 2 contains a broad view of the 21 articles reviewed in this section, for each of the four
themes. The last column of Table 2 refers to the general questions remaining regarding the
creation of a profound plan or consolidation of directions for development for future
urban mobility. Unfortunately, many uncertainties about the direction to take in securing
advanced smart cities with attractive, comfortable and effective APTVs systems oblige all
the four themes start with the words ‘confusion about’.

4. Visionary, feasibility related and realist (VFR) perspectives

The literature review of the four themes is characterized by lack of clarity about the best
way to prepare the ground for future urban mobility. As a result, this review only concep-
tually proposes Visionary, Feasibility-related and Realist (VFR) perspectives as the basis
for exploring plausible scenarios, based on feasibility evidence. This is done while attempt-
ing to realistically consider the imminent gap between progress and current struggles.
Table 3 illustrates several breakthrough inventions and innovations using this VFR
concept. The core input parameters of this concept combine empirical analyses of
world population growth (described in section 1.1), individual car growth, and the
future of PCs as compared with PT, including consideration of AVs and APTVs.
Clearly, the result of what we see in Table 3 is dependent on global developments and
occurrences for which these three input parameters are relevant to our quest for potential
alternatives for creating magnificent, future urban mobility. Nonetheless, these VFR per-
spectives are only outlined in this section, with the intention of marking the door to
further research of this notion. It is believed that the examination of future urban mobility
options depends on the strength of all three types of professionals: those who have clear
and strong vision, those who can test and examine new ideas and technologies, and those
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 17

Table 2. Overall view of some of the characteristics covered by the literature review.
AVs or Technological Math Questions remaining
Theme Source APTVs advance modelling Empirical unanswered
Confusion about Straub and AVs √ – – What if?
policy Schaefer vs. policy
(2019) makers
Foth (2018) AVs √ – – Lack of regulations
Legacy et al. AVs √ – √ Open-ended possibilities
(2019)
Cohen and AVs √ – – Lack of connection
Cavoli (2019) between government
and researchers
Bagloee et al. Both – √ √ Zones for AVs and APTVs
(2019) only?
Singleton AVs √ – √ Lack of clarity
(2019)
Confusion about Carleton – – – √ How to overcome the
behavioural (2016a, anxiety?
trends 2016b)
Haboucha AVs – – √ Fear of the unknown
et al. (2017)
Herb et al. AVs – – √ Consequences of more
(2018) trips?
Nair et al. Both – √ √ People’s preferences
(2018)
Stromberg APTVs – – √ Can features found be
et al. (2018) trusted?
Feigon and APTVs – – √ What is needed to give
Murphy up PCs?
(2018)
Confusion about Schweizer APTVs √ – √ Continue with PRT?
continued ATN et al. (2011)
McDonald APTVs √ – √ Continue with ATN?
(2013)
Furman et al. APTVs √ – √ Lack of clarity about ATN
(2014)
Camacho et al. APTVs √ – – Challenged in-vehicle
(2017) activities
Confusion about Villagra et al. APTVs √ √ – What about integration?
modelling and (2012)
technologies Cuddy et al. Both √ – √ Lack of coherent plan
(2014)
Lam et al. Both √ √ √ Lack of coordination
(2014, 2016)
Lam (2016) APTVs √ √ – Why is only cost
considered?
Vazifeh et al. APTVs √ √ √ What if?
(2018)

who can see clearly and consider the constraints inherent in implementation of the new
ideas and technologies. Following is a brief description of the three input parameters.

4.1. Individual car growth

The total number of motor vehicles on the planet in 2020 is approximately 1.3 billion
vehicles. It is estimated that the number of motor vehicles in use in the world will
reach 2 billion by 2035, with PCs representing at least 50% of all vehicles. By some esti-
mates, the total number of vehicles worldwide could reach 2.5 billion by 2050. From
2010 to 2015, an increase of 21% was evident in the number of registered vehicles in
18 A. CEDER

Table 3. Examples of the development stages of inventions and innovations.

Stages of invention^/Innovation* Events
Invention^/ Invention^/ Feasibility-related
innovation*type innovation* Visionary’s event(s) event(s) Realist’s event(s)
Hardware type Airplane People tried to navigate the The Wright Flyer on 17 Mass production started
air by imitating birds December 1903 during World War II
(1939-1945)
Automobile Steam car designed by Karl Benz built the Benz Mass production started
Verbiest in 1672 patent Motorwagen in by Ford 1913–1914
1886
Ship Dates back about 10,000 Circa 4,000 BCE, the Mass production of
years (vessels) ancient Egyptians ocean ships started in
were making wooden 1940
sailboats
Telephone Early acoustic devices for Invented by Johann Mass production started
transmitting speech and Philipp Reis in 1860, after 1877
music first success by
A. Graham Bell 1876
Maglev Late 1940s, linear motor by First maglev between Expected to be widely
British engineer the airport and railway available in the 2030s
E. Laithwaite station of Birmingham,
1984–1995
Quantum Quantum computer with First quantum computer As of 2016, the
computer spins in 1968; Quantum introduced by D-wave development of actual
computing, in 1980 by P. company in 2011 quantum computers is
Benioff and Y. Manin still in its infancy
Softwaretype Film Huygens in the 1650s By the end of the 1880s Mass production started
(magic lantern) (motion picture after 1910
cameras)
Internet Visions into packet ARPANET created in The creation of the
switching started in the 1969 Hypertext Transfer
early 1960s Protocol (HTTP) in 1991
Smartphone First conceptualized by First mobile phone with Mass production of
Nikola Tesla in 1909 and PDA features was an iPhone with multi-
Theodore Paraskevakos in IBM prototype touch capabilities from
1971 developed in 1992 January 2007
Wireless com- The use of telegraph before Heinrich Hertz in 1888 Mass production from
munication 1600s demonstrated the 1980s with the use of
underlying base of cellular
wireless technology communication
^ In its purest sense, invention can be defined as the creation of a product or introduction of a process for the first time.
* Innovation on the other hand, occurs if someone improves or makes a significant contribution to an existing product,
process or service.

the world (Statisa, 2018). This reflects numbers for 2010 showing 775,573 passenger cars
and 280,127 commercial vehicles registered whereas in 2015, there were 947,080 passenger
cars and 335,190 commercial vehicles registered. Motorization has an impact upon road
traffic injuries, as well as upon congestion, air pollution, and mobility. In many countries,
the rapid pace of motorization has taken place in a void of measures to ensure that all road
users, notably pedestrians and cyclists, remain safe.

4.2. Private cars (PCs) or public transport (PT)

Cities in the future will become more compact, making it prohibitive to use more and
more of the earth’s surface for low-density, resource-intensive settlements in which mobi-
lity depends almost wholly on PCs. The combination of rapid urbanization and motoriza-
tion has been placing a progressively increasing amount of pressure on the current
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 19

transportation infrastructure throughout the world, resulting in such widespread pro-

blems as traffic congestion, traffic fatalities and injuries, traffic pollution and increased
energy consumption. Because land and road resources are finite and subject to competing
uses, government resources are constrained and PCs cannot meet progressively increasing,
diversified, urban mobility needs. The PT systems, especially those involving APTVs with
innovative, shared, customized, and modular modes, should be considered the best choice
for solving these problems. The following section highlights the major elements of all PT
systems.

5. PT effectiveness, efficiency, productivity, pricing and equity

Morris (2016) found that cars, on the average, are parked 95% of the timeHe used three
extrapolated approaches to confirm that cars are actually in use only 5% or less of the time.
The three approximations used are: (i) using data on the number of car trips and their
average time, (ii) a survey of time spent driving and (iii) reports on the distance and
speeds at which cars travel. This observation alone demonstrates the inefficiency of
using PCs. This inefficiency shows that AV-based PCs cannot be the solution for future
urban transportation systems.
From the literature review presented above, there are no clear-cut, practical, or measur-
able criteria for evaluating how good existing and new urban transportation systems are.
The only comprehensible matter is that the evaluation of PT systems should be looked at
simultaneously from three perspectives: that of the passenger, that of the agency/operator
and that of the community/municipality/government. These three perspectives emanate
from the broad spectrum of PT activities. The three key players of the PT system and
their processes are graphically illustrated in Figure 2. The operations planning process
of each player can be further divided into four parts: input, output, activity and impact.
For PT users, with the main inputs of information, cost and social class, the outputs
will be reliability, satisfaction and comprehension. PT users’ activities include waiting,
riding and transferring between different travel modes. The outputs are discrepancy of/
agreement with information provided/expectations. Operator inputs include estimated
passenger (pax) demand, fleet size available, cost components, etc., and the outputs are
veh/km, veh/hr, pax-km, pax-hr, revenue, reliability and safety level. The main operations
planning activities are providing scheduled/flex service, sending updated info, assigning
vehicles and drivers, handling real time control. These activities will have an impact on
time and safety performance, discrepancy of/agreement with expected pax demand. The
inputs by the community/municipality/government are fixed/flex routes and stops, inter-
changes, priority schemes, safety measures. The main operation planning involves activat-
ing priority schemes, encouraging PT users, and restricting car movement. These inputs
and activities result in less/more unused capacity on priority segments, less/more PT-
related accidents and less/more PT use in modal split.
Quality of service reflects passenger perception of PT performance. The Transportation
Research Board (TRB) defines quality of service as the overall measured or perceived per-
formance of transit service from the passenger’s point of view. Camacho, Foth, Rakotonir-
ainy, Rittenbruch, and Bunker (2016) further highlight a passenger-centric approach in
the pursuit of improvement and an extended definition of PT quality of service. Quality
of service depends, to a great extent, on the operating decisions made by a transit
20 A. CEDER

Figure 2. The three key players of the PT system and their processes.

system within its budget constraints, particularly decisions on where transit service should
be provided, how often and how long it is provided, and the kind of service provided.
Quality of service also measures how successful an agency is in providing service to its cus-
tomers, which has ridership implications (TRB, 2013).
Four criteria can be considered when measuring the quality of a PT system: (1)
minimum passenger waiting time, (2) minimum empty seat/space time, (3) minimum
time difference from shortest path and (4) minimum fleet size. The first three criteria
are measured in passenger hours, and the last in number of vehicles. Clearly, the first cri-
terion represents passenger perspective. The second and fourth criteria represent the
agency’s perspective, and criterion 3 represents both passenger and community perspec-
tives. When the purpose of measuring is to compare sets of existing PT systems or pro-
posed future PT systems, monetary weights can be introduced to the four criteria.
Optionally, criterion 3 can be replaced by the total monetary loss (or saving, if it is nega-
tive) if all PT passengers are switched to the shortest path.
Further to the aforementioned criteria for measuring PT system quality, it is note-
worthy that in PT service, tremendous and monotonous can be understood as synon-
ymous. It is best to have a monotonous, automated PT system that will always be there
for the passenger, e.g. a modularized PRT system conducted like a horizontal elevator.
This observation serves as an introduction to the need for PT service standards and guide-
lines. On the one hand, standards involve maintaining and improving existing service
levels. On the other hand, they are often a source of fiscal pressure for PT agencies.
Service standards are also linked to any evaluation effort aimed at improving the
efficiency, effectiveness and productivity of PT services. The greater these measures, the
higher the level of service that can be offered. While efficiency refers to how well some-
thing is done, effectiveness refers to how useful something is. For example, a car is an
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 21

effective form of transportation, able to move people across long distances, to specific
places, but a car may not be efficient because of its use of fuel.
The need for dynamically updated standards in the PT industry warrants our atten-
tion, especially in light of the rapid introduction of advanced technologies in bus and
rail transit and services. While standards, regulations and best practices are justified for
supporting safety and security applications, they are also crucial for creating satisfac-
tory PT service. The main standards currently utilized can be divided into two cat-
egories: (i) route design and (ii) service design. These can be further divided into
route level and network level standards, and into planning level and monitoring level
standards.
An assessment of ridership productivity and financial performance of any PT
agency largely relies on five variables determined on a route basis: (i) vehicle
hours, (ii) vehicle km, (iii) passenger measures, (iv) revenue, and (v) operating
cost. These five variables form the base for seven economic and productivity stan-
dards that are in use in the US and Europe: (i) passengers per vehicle-hour, (ii) pas-
sengers per vehicle kilometre, (iii) passengers per trip, (iv) cost per passenger, (v) cost
recovery ratio, (vi) subsidy per passenger, and (vii) relative performance. The main
evaluation standards currently utilized can be divided into two categories: (i) passen-
ger-based and (ii) cost-based. The former relates to ridership productivity criteria, and
the latter to financial criteria.
The application of PT-connectivity measures, with respect to PT, falls in the area of
social equity. Recent decades have witnessed a slow but steady paradigm shift from plan-
ning mass transit to considering equity and social inclusion as an integral part of the PT
planning process (Kaplan, Popoks, Prato, & Ceder, 2014). While equity and social
inclusion were initially discussed with respect to fare policies, concessionary fares, and
PT subsidies, the perspective has been widened to include population groups with mobility
limitations. An interest in considering equity and social inclusion first became apparent
during the 90s with discussion of the need to integrate equity as a policy goal in transport
provision. Accessibility is broadly defined as the ability and ease of reaching activities,
opportunities, services and goods, and accessibility gaps are defined as the differences in
accessibility across geographical areas, population groups and time. These accessibility
gaps serve as indicators for identifying spatial, vertical, temporal and intergenerational
inequities. PT connectivity can be used as a comprehensive impedance measure for the
calculation of both location-based and potential accessibility measures which relate to
equity assessment within PT planning and evaluation processes. While previous accessi-
bility measures focused on travel time, transit connectivity considers not only travel
time, but passenger discomfort associated with waiting, transfer and access/egress times,
service reliability and attractiveness, frequency and seamless transfers along multimodal
paths with specified travel demand as part of the door-to-door passenger chain (Kaplan
et al., 2014). Thus, PT connectivity is free of the aforementioned four limitations and
offers a deep and comprehensive understanding of accessibility gaps as equity indicators.
In addition, for each origin-destination pair, PT connectivity is calculated for a set of mul-
tiple and feasible PT paths, including the three shortest paths and the three most popular
paths (i.e. the paths with the maximum demand) in order to account for the probabilistic
nature of PT path choice.
22 A. CEDER

6. Concluding remarks
With changes in lifestyles, travel and transportation behaviour has already changed and
will continue to change in the future. Clearly, we are on the verge of a dramatic change
in urban mobility, but the evolution of automated/autonomous vehicles (AVs) is currently
characterized by excessive confusion, causing uncertainty for researchers with respect to
the chances that their research will improve future urban mobility. This is why this
work emphasizes thinking profoundly of the possibilities, rather than predicting them.
Thoughts of possibilities for the future draw upon imagination. Each of these strains of
thought contribute to shedding some light on directions for further research.
This work reviews four themes of studies which are part of the prevalent confusion
about best practices as well as the research required for enhancing future urban mobility.
The four themes are on research studies related to decisions, behavioural trends, auto-
mated transit networks, and modelling and technologies. As the result of this review,
this work proposes – only conceptually – a Visionary, Feasibility-related and Realist
(VFR) perspective-based approach to exploring plausible visions for the future. This
VFR concept combines empirical analysis of world population growth, urbanization,
growth in private cars and their future in comparison to the future of public transport
(PT) services.
Presently, in 2020, it is evident that more than half the world’s population resides in
cities, and growth is expected almost exclusively in cities. Accordingly, urban growth
acceleration can be expected to result in healthier, more efficient and more productive
lives for city dwellers. One observation of this work is that private cars (PCs) are
parked approximately 95% of the time, demonstrating the inefficiency of their use. In con-
sideration of this inefficiency and applying it to the development of autonomous and elec-
tric vehicles, it is clearly evident that PCs cannot provide a solution competitive with the
potential that urban transportation systems have for the future. Hence, the solutions for
the future must be based on PT modes of travel, regardless of whether they are metro,
bus, light rail, tram, ridesharing services, an ordinary taxi, personal-rapid transit or any
other PT-based future mode.
As opposed to rural areas, the increasing rhythm of urban life causes city residents to
more highly value time saved, reduced fares, and increased convenience. Succinctly, they
appreciate the value of time, fare, and convenience (TFC). When using PT, the customer is
not interested in the routing as much as in the TFC. Consequently, future urban transpor-
tation will be attractive and successful if it delivers a travel system which is TFC-consider-
ate. Moreover, advanced communication technology has already begun to have notably
favourable effects upon cities and their transportation systems. The foreseeable lifestyle
of mobility in future smart cities will not only involve travel by vehicles, but also
walking and cycling. New urban mobility services, such as current rideselling and ride-
sharing apps, will continue to appear, develop and merge. The key principal of operation
for the mobility of a smart city will be the ability to optimize the connectivity of movement
into a seamless transition, while endowing the phrase door-to-door travel with new
meaning.
As suggested above, we cannot change the direction of the wind, with respect to evol-
ution of lifestyles or land use patterns, and other phenomena. We can however adjust the
sails and create attractive PT systems that will naturally shift people from PCs to PT
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN SCIENCES 23

vehicles. Appropriate adjustment of the sail relies heavily on acknowledging the ongoing
development of new technologies. This is especially applicable to the unforeseeable impli-
cations of the Covid-19 pandemic for future mobility. However, it is premature to make
hypotheses regarding changes that may occur with respect to human mobility needs as
new practices evolve in terms of working hours for working from home and social distance
implications when using PT services.
Accordingly, we will apply new technologies to more advanced, attractive, connected
and customized travel modes for the purpose of encouraging mode shifts. Instead of
trying to push people away from already crowded travel modes, we need to lure them
away with innovative planning and operational strategies and ensure that transfers
across travel modes are seamless. However, much will remain beyond our control, as
the systems, like life, will evolve/develop by themselves. In other words, it is reasonable
to assume that the evolvement of urban transportation will be as predictable and as unpre-
dictable as the weather, and similarly beyond our control.

Acknowledgements
The author would like to express his sincere thanks to KOTI – Korea Transport Institute for partly
supporting this study, and to Dr. Tao Liu, for having good and interesting conversations.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding
The author would like to express his sincere thanks to KOTI – Korea Transport Institute for partly
supporting this study.

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