Auto Components

India I Equities Company Update

Change in Estimates  Target  Reco 

11 February 2025

Sansera Engineering
Rating: Buy
Muted Q3 results; positive over the medium term, retaining a Buy Target Price: Rs.1,600
Share Price: Rs.1,166
Broadly in line with our estimate, Sansera’s Q3 consolidated EBITDA
grew 5% y/y to Rs1.27bn. We expect its outperformance to continue, Key data SANSERA IN / SASE.BO
thanks to greater focus on xEV (drivetrain), tech-agnostic (aluminium 52-week high / low Rs1758 / 900
forgings) and non-auto (aerospace, Defence, semiconductor) Sensex / Nifty 76889 / 23236
components. We expect >30% revenue share from xEV, tech-agnostic 3-m average volume $2.1m
and non-auto categories by FY27. We expect the EBITDA margin to Market cap Rs.74bn / $848.7m
rise ~50bps p.a., led by greater scale, Sweden subsidiary’s improved Shares outstanding 62m
margins and a better export-tech-agnostic mix. We maintain a Buy at a
lower TP of Rs1,600 (earlier Rs1,850), 25x FY27e EPS (25x FY27e). Shareholding pattern (%) Dec'24 Sept'24 Jun'24
Promoters 30.3 30.4 34.8
EBITDA in line with estimates. Q3 consolidated revenue grew 2% y/y to - of which, Pledged - - -
Rs7.28bn, below our estimated Rs7.54bn on less-than-expected export Free float 69.7 69.6 65.2
revenue. In Q3, India rose 4% y/y, Europe came flat and others 96%; the US - Foreign institutions 20.5 18.5 15.6
fell 28%. Segment-wise, auto-ICE was flat (weak PV) and auto tech- - Domestic institutions 37.5 39.6 34.7
agnostic/xEV up 10%; non-auto dipped 7% (weak aerospace and off-road). - Public 11.6 11.5 14.9
EBITDA grew 5% y/y to Rs1.27bn, broadly in line with our estimated
Rs1.3bn. The EBITDA margin expanded 50bps y/y (but q/q flat) to 17.5%. Estimates revision (%) FY25e FY26e FY27e
Standalone EBITDA margin fell 120bps y/y, 90bps q/q to 16.7%. Subsidiary’s Sales -3.9 -4.5 -6.1
(consolidated - standalone) EBITDA grew 244% y/y, 93% q/q to Rs194m. EBITDA -4.7 -5.8 -7.9
Interest cost grew 4% y/y, but dipped 21% q/q, to Rs182m on debt repayment PAT -14.9 -10.7 -12.4
(QIP inflows). The tax rate was lower at 21.8% vs. 27.4% a year ago on Sweden
subsidiary’s higher profits. Overall, PAT grew 16% y/y to Rs557m, above ARe
Relative price performance
of Rs504m, mainly due to the less-than-expected tax rate. 1,900

Valuation. We expect a strong, 33%, EPS CAGR over FY25-27, driven by a 1,700

16% revenue CAGR and a 110bp EBITDA-margin expansion. Our FY25-27e 1,500

`EPS are ~11-15% lower, owing to slower-than-expected revenue/EBITDA 1,300

growth. We retain a Buy at a lower TP of Rs1,600, 25x FY27e EPS (earlier 1,100
Rs1,850, 25x FY27e). Key risks: Less-than-expected growth in underlying 900
segments, delays in order execution, adverse commodity/forex movements.
Mar-24
Feb-24

May-24

Feb-25
Apr-24

Jun-24

Aug-24
Sep-24
Jul-24

Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
Jan-25

sansera Sensex

Source: Bloomberg
Key financials (YE Mar) FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Sales (Rs m) 23,460 28,114 30,100 35,387 40,167
Net profit (Rs m) 1,462 1,858 2,225 3,301 3,923
EPS (Rs) 27.6 34.6 36.1 53.5 63.6
Growth (%) 10 25 4 48 19 Mumuksh Mandlesha
Research Analyst
P/E (x) 42.2 33.7 32.3 21.8 18.3
EV / EBITDA (x) 17.9 14.6 11.4 9.5 8.2
P/BV (x) 5.4 4.6 2.3 2.1 1.9
Shagun Beria
RoE (%) 13.3 14.8 10.9 11.4 12.2 Research Associate
RoCE (%) 10.0 11.3 10.0 10.6 11.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8
Dishant Jain
Net debt / equity (x) 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 Research Associate
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.

Anand Rathi Research India Equities

11 February 2025 Sansera Engineering – Muted Q3 results; positive over the medium term, retaining a Buy

Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations (Consol)

Fig 1 – Income statement (Rs m) Fig 2 – Balance sheet (Rs m)
Year-end: Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Year-end: Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
Net revenues 23,460 28,114 30,100 35,387 40,167 Share capital 106 107 123 123 123
Growth (%) 17.4 19.8 7.1 17.6 13.5 Net worth 11,679 13,474 27,484 30,455 33,790
Raw material 10,978 12,175 12,221 14,261 16,067 Debt 7,121 8,011 3,511 3,511 3,511
Employee & other expenses 8,634 11,140 12,635 14,748 16,659 Minority interest 140 159 181 207 232
EBITDA 3,847 4,799 5,245 6,378 7,441 DTL / (Assets) 689 692 692 692 692
EBITDA margins (%) 16.4 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.5 Capital employed 19,629 22,337 31,868 34,865 38,225
- Depreciation 1,301 1,495 1,729 1,977 2,237 Net tangible assets 12,691 14,625 18,396 21,419 24,182
Other income 101 24 190 380 399 Net intangible assets 1,245 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215
Interest expenses 615 770 720 386 386 CWIP (tang. & intang.) 757 835 835 835 835
PBT 2,032 2,558 2,986 4,395 5,217 Investments (strategic) 105 400 450 500 550
Effective tax rates (%) 27 27 25 25 25 Investments (financial) 7 10 10 10 10
+ Associates / (Minorities) -21 -13 -14 5 11 Current assets (excl. cash) 9,208 10,212 8,170 9,344 10,398
Adjusted income 1,462 1,858 2,225 3,301 3,923 Cash 616 630 6,371 5,379 5,100
Extraordinary items - - - - - Current liabilities 4,999 5,591 3,580 3,838 4,066
Net income 1,462 1,858 2,225 3,301 3,923 Working capital 4,209 4,621 4,591 5,506 6,332
WANS 53 54 62 62 62 Capital deployed 19,629 22,337 31,868 34,865 38,225
FDEPS (Rs) 27.6 34.6 36.1 53.5 63.6
Growth (%) 10 25 4 48 19

Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (Rs m) Fig 4 – Ratio analysis

Year-end: Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e Year-end: Mar FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e
PBT 2,032 2,563 2,993 4,426 5,253 P/E (x) 42.2 33.7 32.3 21.8 18.3
+ Non-cash items 1,916 2,265 2,449 2,363 2,623 EV / EBITDA (x) 17.9 14.6 11.4 9.5 8.2
Oper. prof. before WC 3,948 4,828 5,442 6,789 7,876 EV / Sales (x) 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5
- Incr. / (decr.) in WC 765 396 -30 915 826 P/B (x) 5.4 4.6 2.3 2.1 1.9
Others incl. taxes 619 689 768 1,125 1,330 RoE (%) 13.3 14.8 10.9 11.4 12.2
Operating cash-flow 2,564 3,743 4,705 4,749 5,720 RoCE (%) - after tax 10.0 11.3 10.0 10.6 11.3
- Capex (tang. + intang.) 2,425 3,386 5,500 5,000 5,000 RoIC (%) - after tax 10.3 11.6 11.5 12.8 13.2
Free cash-flow 139 357 -795 -251 720 DPS (Rs) 2.4 3.0 3.5 5.3 9.5
Acquisitions - - - - - Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8
- Div. (incl. buyback & taxes) 105 133 216 330 588 Dividend payout (%) 8.5 8.7 9.7 10.0 15.0
+ Equity raised - 32 12,001 0 -0 Net debt / equity (x) 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0
+ Debt raised 672 893 -4,500 - - Receivables (days) 67 60 60 60 60
- Fin. investments -16 -13 50 50 50 Inventory (days) 58 54 54 54 54
- Misc. (CFI + CFF) 609 1,148 699 360 360 Payables (days) 46 46 46 46 46
Net cash-flow 113 13 5,741 -991 -279 CFO : PAT % 175 202 211 144 146
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 5 – Price movement Fig 6 – Segment-wise break-up (Q3 FY25)

(Rs)
Others
2,000 Off-Road 2% Agriculture
3% 3% 3W
1,800 Aerospace & 0%
Defence
1,600 4%
1,400 xEV
5%
1,200
1,000 CV 2W
12% 45%
800
600
400 Tech Agnostic
8%
200
0
Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-24
Sep-21

May-22

Sep-22

Nov-23
Jan-22
Mar-22

Jan-23

May-23

Sep-23

Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24

Sep-24

Jan-25
Jul-22

Mar-23

Jul-23

Jul-24

PV
18%
Source: Bloomberg Source: Company

Anand Rathi Research 2

11 February 2025 Sansera Engineering – Muted Q3 results; positive over the medium term, retaining a Buy

Result highlights

Fig 7 – Quarterly performance (consolidated)

(Rs m) Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Y/Y (%) Q/Q (%) FY25YTD FY24YTD Y/Y(%)
Revenue 7,126 7,458 7,439 7,634 7,278 2.1 (4.7) 22,351 20,656 8.2
Expenditure 5,919 6,188 6,164 6,303 6,007 1.5 (4.7) 18,474 17,128 7.9
as % of sales 83.1 83.0 82.9 82.6 82.5 82.7 82.9
Cost of goods sold 3,089 3,193 3,042 3,124 2,911 (5.7) (6.8) 9,077 8,982 1.1
as % of sales 43.3 42.8 40.9 40.9 40.0 40.6 43.5
Employee cost 954 999 1,068 1,101 1,115 16.9 1.3 3,284 2,798 17.4
as % of sales 13.4 13.4 14.4 14.4 15.3 14.7 13.5
Other expenditure 1,877 1,996 2,054 2,078 1,981 5.6 (4.7) 6,113 5,347 14.3
as % of sales 26.3 26.8 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.4 25.9
EBITDA 1,207 1,270 1,275 1,331 1,271 5.3 (4.5) 3,877 3,528 9.9
Depreciation 378 397 400 425 445 17.5 4.5 1,270 1,098 15.7
EBIT 829 873 876 906 826 (0.3) (8.8) 2,607 2,430 7.3
Other income 13 (3) 4 39 61 365 58 103 27 280.5
Interest 175 225 193 230 182 3.6 (20.9) 604 545 10.9
PBT 666 645 687 715 705 5.9 (1.3) 2,107 1,913 10.1
Total tax 182 185 185 195 154 (15.7) (21.2) 534 502 6.3
Minority interest 4 4 6 10 3 18 14
Share of profit from JV 5 -1 -3 8 4 0
Adjusted PAT 480 461 496 506 557 16.0 9.9 1,559 1,397 11.6
Extraordinary items Loss/(Gain) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 480 461 496 506 557 16.0 9.9 1,559 1,397 11.6
Adj. EPS (Rs) 9.0 8.6 9.2 9.4 10.3 15.1 9.9 28.9 26.2 10.4

Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps)

Gross 56.7 57.2 59.1 59.1 60.0 334 92 59.4 56.5 288
EBIDTA 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.5 52 2 17.3 17.1 27
EBIT 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.3 (28) (52) 11.7 11.8 (10)
PAT 6.7 6.2 6.7 6.6 7.6 91 101 7.0 6.8 21
Source: Company

Anand Rathi Research 3

11 February 2025 Sansera Engineering – Muted Q3 results; positive over the medium term, retaining a Buy

Earnings call highlights

◼ Demand outlook. Domestic market outlook remains positive. Some
inventory correction is expected due to OBD 2B norms. North America
could present a meaningful opportunity with changing global dynamics.
Consolidated revenue targeted to grow at a high-teen CAGR over three
years with revenue over Rs50bn by FY28. The company targets to
improve EBITDA margins by 50bps per year.
◼ Aerospace. Added a new direct customer, Airbus. The company
expects a notable change in growth momentum from Q4 FY25.
◼ Aerospace/Defence/semiconductor (unit 9) annual orderbook at
~Rs6bn. ~Rs3bn of order execution is expected by FY26 (FY25
revenue likely at Rs1.4bn, includes Rs100m from semiconductors and
Rs1.3bn from aerospace/Defence). The key risk to order execution is
delay in development of a high number of products, which can slower
order execution.
◼ xEV/tech-agnostic annual orders at Rs5.352bn, including a major
portion from aluminium-forged products.
◼ Semiconductor. Precision parts won from a global wafer fabrication
equipment player (machine manufacturer for etching and deposition).
Current revenue at Rs100m in FY25. New annual order size is $17m
and with further LOIs, it has the potential to go up to $30m in three
years. It has a good margin profile.
◼ Q3 revenue growth was muted due to a weak US PV/off-road market
(before elections) and Europe. EBITDA margins were maintained due
to the better mix and certain price actions.
◼ Q3 FY25 revenue. Tech agnostic/xEV grew 10% y/y. xEV business
grew >30% y/y. The non-auto sector declined 7% y/y due to some
softness in off-road (Rs203m), aerospace (Rs269m) and labour issues
(key OEM issue resolved from Nov’24). Agriculture grew 65% y/y,
75% q/q to Rs177m, driven by tractor demand. Auto ICE remained
muted y/y at Rs5.1bn. 2W grew 7% y/y, with scooter growth at 21%.
PV fell 19% y/y due to inventory pile-up and softness in exports
(recovery is expected, with launches). 3W rose 10% y/y and CV, 11%
y/y.
◼ MMRFIC. Awarded government grants of ~Rs200m to develop
multiple iDEX programs. Orderbook at Rs1bn. Radar 1 is under field
testing and is expected to be complete in two quarters, with potential
demand for 150-200 radars per year. The current holding in MMRFIC
is at 35-36% and can be increased to 51% ahead.
◼ Capex. Current business’ asset turn is 1.2-1.5x and emerging business’
2-2.5x. FY25 capex is expected at ~Rs5.5bn (incl. Rs1bn for a 55-acre
land in Karnataka). Investment in aerospace at Rs1-1.1bn for the
machining facility in FY25. Capex of Rs13bn-14bn is expected over
three years to meet new order requirements.
◼ QIP. Of Rs12bn raised, Rs7bn is for repayment of debt, Rs2bn for
capex (Rs1bn for land, Rs1bn for new machine equipment), Rs250m
for QIP expenses and Rs2.75bn towards other development expenses.
◼ Net debt was Rs1.5bn and gross debt was Rs3.5bn as of Dec’24 vs. net
debt of Rs8.8bn in Sep’24. Interest cost reduced q/q due to debt

Anand Rathi Research 4

11 February 2025 Sansera Engineering – Muted Q3 results; positive over the medium term, retaining a Buy

reduction from funding received through the QIP process; more

reduction in interest cost is expected in Q4 FY25.
◼ The tax rate was lower in Q3 because of higher profitability for Sweden
subsidiary (price hikes). Tax rate of ~25% is expected for FY25.

Anand Rathi Research 5

11 February 2025 Sansera Engineering – Muted Q3 results; positive over the medium term, retaining a Buy

Valuation
New orders to diversify revenue stream. We expect revenue to clock a
16% CAGR over FY25-27, led by 38% growth in non-auto, 28% in xEV,
21% in tech-agnostic, and 10% in auto ICE. The robust Rs22bn orderbook
is comprised of PVs + CVs (29%), 2Ws (16%), non-auto (16%), xEV (15%),
aerospace/Defence (14%) and tech-agnostic (10%). We expect the
company’s outperformance to continue, thanks to greater focus on
xEV (drivetrain), tech-agnostic (aluminium forgings) and non-auto
(aerospace, semiconductor, Defence) components.
Better mix, Sweden subsidiary’s margin expansion and operating
scale to aid margins. We expect the EBITDA margin to expand from
17.4% in FY25 to 18.5% in FY27. The net-cash position would continue
ahead, supported by the recent QIP fund raise.
View, Valuations. We expect a 33% EPS CAGR over FY25-27, driven by
a 16% revenue CAGR and a 110bp EBITDA-margin expansion. The
outperformance would continue, with a higher wallet-share and sharper
focus on aerospace, xEV and tech-agnostic-specific components. An
increase in the non-ICE share would drive multiple re-rating as terminal
growth assurance improves. We recommend a Buy, at a TP of Rs1,600, 25x
FY27e EPS.
Fig 8 – Key assumption
(Rs m) FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e FY27e CAGR FY25-27e
Auto ICE 18,205 21,198 22,194 24,494 26,852 10
Y/Y change, % 17 16 5 10 10
Tech-agnostic 1,548 2,137 2,690 3,261 3,918 21
Y/Y change, % 46 38 26 21 20
xEV 891 1,321 1,853 2,492 3,024 28
Y/Y change, % 1098 48 40 34 21
Non-auto 2,815 3,458 3,363 5,140 6,373 38
Y/Y change, % 44 23 -3 53 24
Revenues 23,460 28,114 30,100 35,387 40,167 16
Y/Y change, % 17 20 7 18 14 `
Source: Company

Fig 9 – Change in estimates

Old Revised Change (%)

(Rs m) FY25e FY26e FY27e FY25e FY26e FY27e FY25 FY26 FY27

Revenue 31,325 37,040 42,789 30,100 35,387 40,167 -3.9 -4.5 -6.1
EBITDA 5,505 6,769 8,076 5,245 6,378 7,441 -4.7 -5.8 -7.9
% of revenue 17.6 18.3 18.9 17.4 18.0 18.5
Adj. PAT 2,615 3,695 4,476 2,225 3,301 3,923 -14.9 -10.7 -12.4
EPS (Rs) 42.4 59.9 72.5 36.1 53.5 63.6 -14.9 -10.7 -12.4
Source: Anand Rathi Research

Risks
◼ Less-than-anticipated growth in underlying segments.
◼ Delay in executing new orders.
◼ Adverse commodity/forex movements.

Anand Rathi Research 6

Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s)
in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of
India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have no bearing
whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.

Important Disclosures on subject companies

Rating and Target Price History (as of 11 February 2025)
TP Share
1,900 Sansera Date Rating (Rs) Price (Rs)
1,700 1 12-Jul-22 Buy 853 692
2 9-Nov-22 Buy 1,002 745
1,500
3 7-Feb-23 Buy 957 734
1,300 8 4 23-May-23 Buy 900 780
7 5 2-Aug-23 Buy 1,125 968
1,100
5 6 10-Nov-23 Buy 1,350 851
6
900 4 7 20-May-24 Buy 1,325 1,060
2
1 8 13-Nov-24 Buy 1,850 1,479
700
3
500
Nov-21

Dec-22

Nov-23

Dec-24
Jul-23

Jul-24
Apr-22
Jun-22

Oct-22

Jan-24
Mar-24

Oct-24
Sep-21

Feb-22

Aug-22

Feb-23
May-23

Sep-23

May-24

Feb-25
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps, Mid Caps & Small Caps as described in the Ratings
Table below:
Ratings Guide (12 months)
Buy Hold Sell
Large Caps (Top 100 companies) >15% 0-15% <0%
Mid Caps (101st-250th company) >20% 0-20% <0%
Small Caps (251st company onwards) >25% 0-25% <0%

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