Demographic Transition Model and
Global Population Trends
1. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a framework used to explain the transformation of
countries from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as part of the process of
economic and social development. It is typically divided into four (sometimes five) stages:
• Stage 1 (High Stationary): Both birth and death rates are high, leading to low population
growth.
• Stage 2 (Early Expanding): Death rates decline due to improvements in health and sanitation,
while birth rates remain high, causing rapid population growth.
• Stage 3 (Late Expanding): Birth rates begin to fall as societies modernize, reducing the rate of
growth.
• Stage 4 (Low Stationary): Both birth and death rates are low, stabilizing population growth.
• Stage 5 (Declining, debated): Some countries may experience population decline due to very
low fertility.
The model helps explain different phases of population change observed globally. For example,
most developed countries are now in Stage 4 or 5, while many developing countries are in Stage
2 or 3.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024
2. Trends in Number of Years to Add a Billion Population Globally
The time taken to add each additional billion to the global population has varied significantly
across history:
• It took thousands of years for the world to reach its first billion in 1804.
• The second billion was added in 1927, after about 123 years.
• The third billion came in 1960 (33 years later).
• The fourth billion in 1974 (14 years).
• The fifth billion in 1987 (13 years).
• The sixth billion in 1999 (12 years).
• The seventh billion in 2011 (12 years).
• The eighth billion in 2022 (11 years).
Future projections suggest that growth is slowing: the ninth billion is expected around 2037, and
the tenth around 2058, indicating an increasing number of years to add a billion.
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024
3. Trends in World Population Growth (Size and Rate)
Global population growth has followed a distinct trajectory over the past century. The world
population grew from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8.1 billion in 2024. Growth rates peaked in the 1960s
at around 2.3% per year. Since then, the growth rate has steadily declined and is currently close to
1%. By the end of the 21st century, growth is expected to approach near-zero levels, leading to
stabilization or even decline.
Key highlights:
• Size: 2.5 billion (1950) → 8.1 billion (2024) → projected ~10.2 billion (2085).
• Growth Rate: Peaked in the 1960s, declining since then.
• Regional Variation: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the fastest-growing region, while Europe and
East Asia are facing population decline.
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, 2024
