"Marriage Story" looks like the only Oscar contender this season with a plausible shot at earning nominations in all four acting races, in large part because it's one of the few films in the conversation with male and female co-leads. Only 15 other movies have accomplished that feat, which would make "Marriage" the 16th. But it's even more impressive when you consider that it has only happened twice in the last 37 years.
According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, "Marriage Story" is a reasonably safe bet for Best Actress (Scarlett Johansson as an actress filing for divorce), Best Actor (Adam Driver as her husband fighting to retain custody of their son) and Best Supporting Actress (Laura Dern as Johansson's lawyer). That leaves Best Supporting Actor, where Alan Alda is a contender for playing Driver's kindly but out-of-his-depth attorney, but he's an underdog according to our odds as of this writing.
However, Alda may be considered due for some love from the academy since he's a beloved Hollywood legend who has never won an Oscar and has only been nominated once before: Best Supporting Actor for 2004's "The Aviator," which itself was a surprise since that performance had been passed over by the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. Alda is also one of the most sympathetic characters in the film, and often brings much-needed levity to story that can be emotionally dark, so don't count him out.
The two other films that achieved the nominations grand slam this century also exceeded our expectations: "Silver Linings Playbook" (2012) and "American Hustle" (2013), both of which happened to be David O. Russell movies. "Silver Linings" earned expected nominations for Jennifer Lawrence (Actress), Bradley Cooper (Actor) and Robert De Niro (Supporting Actor), but most of us didn't see Jacki Weaver's Supporting Actress nomination coming.
The very next year "American Hustle" was a predicted nominee for Amy Adams (Actress), Lawrence again (Supporting Actress) and Cooper again (Supporting Actor), but Christian Bale's Best Actor bid didn't look nearly as likely. Before that you have to go all the way back to "Reds" (1981) to find a film nominated in all four acting races.
The full list of films that swept the acting awards are as follows. Winners are highlighted in gold:
"My Man Godfrey" (1936) -- Actor (William Powell), Actress (Carole Lombard), Supporting Actor (Mischa Auer), Supporting Actress (Alice Brady)
"Mrs. Miniver" (1942) -- Actor (Walter Pidgeon), Actress (Greer Garson), Supporting Actor (Henry Travers), Supporting Actress (Teresa Wright and May Whitty)
"For Whom the Bell Tolls" (1943) -- Actor (Gary Cooper), Actress (Ingrid Bergman), Supporting Actor (Akim Tamiroff), Supporting Actress (Katina Paxinou)
"Johnny Belinda" (1948) -- Actor (Lew Ayres), Actress (Jane Wyman), Supporting Actor (Charles Bickford), Supporting Actress (Agnes Moorehead)
"Sunset Boulevard" (1950) -- Actor (William Holden), Actress (Gloria Swanson), Supporting Actor (Erich von Stroheim), Supporting Actress (Nancy Olson)
"A Streetcar Names Desire" (1951) -- Actor (Marlon Brando), Actress (Vivien Leigh), Supporting Actor (Karl Malden), Supporting Actress (Kim Hunter)
"From Here to Eternity" (1953) -- Actor (Montgomery Clift and Burt Lancaster), Actress (Deborah Kerr), Supporting Actor (Frank Sinatra), Supporting Actress (Donna Reed)
"Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" (1966) -- Actor (Richard Burton), Actress (Elizabeth Taylor), Supporting Actor (George Segal), Supporting Actress (Sandy Dennis)
"Bonnie and Clyde" (1967) -- Actor (Warren Beatty), Actress (Faye Dunaway), Supporting Actor (Gene Hackman and Michael J. Pollard), Supporting Actress (Estelle Parsons)
"Guess Who's Coming to Dinner" (1967) -- Actor (Spencer Tracy), Actress (Katharine Hepburn), Supporting Actor (Cecil Kellaway), Supporting Actress (Beah Richards)
"Network" (1976) -- Actor (Peter Finch and William Holden), Actress (Faye Dunaway), Supporting Actor (Ned Beatty), Supporting Actress (Beatrice Straight)
"Coming Home" (1978) -- Actor (Jon Voight), Actress (Jane Fonda), Supporting Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (Penelope Milford)
"Reds" (1981) -- Actor (Warren Beatty), Actress (Diane Keaton), Supporting Actor (Jack Nicholson), Supporting Actress (Maureen Stapleton)
"Silver Linings Playbook" (2012) -- Actor (Bradley Cooper), Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Supporting Actress (Jacki Weaver)
"American Hustle" (2013) -- Actor (Christian Bale), Actress (Amy Adams), Supporting Actor (Bradley Cooper), Supporting Actress (Jennifer Lawrence)
The bad news for "Marriage Story" is that only two of the films that swept the acting races won Best Picture ("Mrs. Miniver" and "From Here to Eternity"). But the good news is that its odds of winning for acting go way up: 12 of the 15 movies that accomplished the grand slam went on to win at least one of those acting categories. The only shutouts were "My Man Godfrey," "Sunset Boulevard" and "American Hustle." As of this writing Dern is the front-runner for Best Supporting Actress, while Driver and Johansson are both close seconds for Best Actor and Best Actress. How well do you think "Marriage Story" will do?
Be sure to make your Oscar nominee predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before nominees are announced on January 13. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Academy Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
Alan Alda is good in Marriage Story. But Ray Liotta is even better. The latter may get nominated.
To achieve the grand slam in the acting nominations, the chances would be stronger if all four of them has at least one scene where all four are together. Better still they must have some dialogue exchange in the scene. The last criterion about the dialogue is missed out by Marriage Story, but since there is a scene where all four are together (whether Alan Alda or Ray Liotta), its chances are quite good. Just need for Alan Alda to play on the sentimentalism of the Oscar voters or Ray Liotta to cast a kind of ‘Jack Palance’ mesmerising influence on the voters otherwise Bradd Pitt would surely win.
I agree with you completely that Ray Liotta was better than Alan Alda. However, Best Supporting Actor is way too stacked for him to get in. After Pitt, Pacino, Pesci, and Hanks, that last slot is open.
It definitely won’t sweep the acting awards. It’s best shot at an acting award is Laura Dern, and even that’s not a sure thing given that she has J-Lo and Margot Robbie to contend with.
I have a strong feeling that Driver and Johansson are gonna win together.