For several years, the nominees for Album of the Year were decided by secretive nomination review committees, but the Recording Academy got rid of most of those in 2021 after The Weeknd's notorious shutout, so now the decisions are made entirely by members at large. Scroll down for our latest odds, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Those odds are constantly changing, so we'll be updating this list throughout the season.
In 2022, the first year without the committees, the Grammys expanded Album of the Year to 10 nominations (though that has since been contracted back to eight). The 2022 winner ended up being We Are by Jon Batiste, which was a surprise against higher-profile hits. So even without the committees to uplift underdog recordings, the academy's 13,000 voters don't necessarily default to the most popular nominee. The 2023 awards were also surprising, ending in the coronation of Harry Styles (Harry's House) over Beyoncé (Renaissance) and Adele (30). Taylor Swift made history in 2024 with Midnights; that was her fourth Album of the Year win, making her the most awarded performer in the history of the category.
The 2025 awards were also historic. Beyoncé finally won Album of the Year, for her country crossover Cowboy Carter, making her the first Black woman this century to claim the prize. She was up against previous winners Billie Eilish (Hit Me Hard and Soft) and Swift (The Tortured Poets Department), as well as formidable first-time nominees Sabrina Carpenter (Short n' Sweet) and Chappell Roan (The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess). That night Beyoncé also extended her record as the most awarded artist in Grammy history with a grand total of 35.
Who will follow her into the winner's circle? Superstars like Elton John, Lady Gaga, and Kendrick Lamar have also been nominated for Album of the Year numerous times without a win, and they're all eligible in this year's race. Time — and our users who make their predictions — will tell what shape this race takes.
UPDATED: February 19, 2025
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1. Kendrick Lamar, ‘GNX’
Image Credit: Christopher Polk/Penske Media Current Odds: 13/2
Label: PGLang/Interscope
Release Date: Nov. 22, 2024
Grammy History: With 22 awards, he’s one of the most awarded individuals in Grammy history, and the third most awarded rapper, following closely behind Jay-Z and Kanye West with 24 apiece. He recently won Record and Song of the Year for his diss track “Not Like Us,” but he has not yet won Album of the Year despite six nominations in the category.
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2. Elton John and Brandi Carlile, ‘Who Believes in Angels?’
Image Credit: Scott Kowalchyk/CBS Current Odds: 9/1
Label: Interscope
Release Date: April 4, 2025
Grammy History: Perhaps surprisingly, Elton John has only won five Grammys in his career, and he has never won Album of the Year despite four attempts. Carlile hasn’t won Album of the Year either despite two previous nominations, though she has won 11 trophies in her career thus far.
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3. Lady Gaga, ‘Mayhem’
Image Credit: Stewart Cook/CBS Current Odds: 10/1
Label: Streamline/Interscope
Release Date: March 7, 2025
Grammy History: Lady Gaga has four previous nominations for Album of the Year, but she has yet to win it. Altogether she has won 14 awards out of 38 nominations from the Recording Academy.
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4. The Weeknd, ‘Hurry Up Tomorrow’
Image Credit: Naomi Rahim/Getty Images for Live Nation Current Odds: 23/2
Label: XO/Republic
Release Date: Jan. 31, 2025
Grammy History: Though The Weeknd famously boycotted the Grammys after they shut his album After Hours out of the nominations, he made up with the Academy and performed during the 2025 awards ceremony. To date, The Weeknd has won four Grammys and has been nominated for Album of the Year four times (mostly for his featured appearances on other artists’ albums).
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5. Lana Del Rey, ‘The Right Person Will Stay’
Image Credit: Gilbert Flores for Billboard Current Odds: 14/1
Label: Interscope/Polydor
Release Date: May 21, 2025
Grammy History: She has been nominated for 11 Grammys, including three for Album of the Year, but she hasn’t won yet in any category.
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6. Tyler, the Creator, ‘Chromakopia’
Image Credit: Michael Buckner/Variety Current Odds: 18/1
Label: Columbia
Release Date: Oct. 28, 2024
Grammy History: He has won two Grammys for Best Rap Album, for Igor and Call Me if You Get Lost. He was also nominated for Album of the Year as a featured artist on Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange. But he hasn’t been nominated in the general field as a lead artist.
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7. Bad Bunny, ‘Debí Tirar Más Fotos’
Image Credit: Swan Gallet/WWD Current Odds: 20/1
Label: Rimas
Release Date: Jan. 5, 2025
Grammy History: He has won three Grammys (plus 11 Latin Grammys) in his career. He was nominated once for Album of the Year for Un Verano Sin Ti, which was the first Spanish-language album ever to compete for the top prize.
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8. Coldplay, ‘Moon Music’
Image Credit: Anna Lee/Penske Media Current Odds: 30/1
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Release Date: Oct. 4, 2024
Grammy History: The British pop-rock band have won seven Grammys and earned three nominations for Album of the Year, including for their last two albums in a row, Everyday Life and Music of the Spheres.
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9. Samara Joy, ‘Portrait’
Image Credit: Michael Buckner/Billboard Current Odds: 33/1
Label: Verve
Release Date: Oct. 11, 2024
Grammy History: She’s currently undefeated at the Grammys, winning five times out of five nominations. That includes a surprise Best New Artist victory in 2023. Though she hasn’t been nominated for Album of the Year yet, and jazz rarely breaks through in the top category, jazz musicians make up a large share of Grammy voters, so never rule it out.
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10. Finneas, ‘For Cryin’ Out Loud!’
Image Credit: Christopher Polk/Billboard Current Odds: 72/1
Label: OYOY/Interscope
Release Date: Oct. 4, 2024
Grammy History: Finneas has 10 Grammys, including an Album of the Year win as a producer of his sister Billie Eilish’s When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? But he only has one previous nomination as a recording artist in his own right: Best New Artist in 2022.
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11. Various Artists, ‘Wicked: The Soundtrack’
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Universal Studios/Republic/VLG/Verve
Release Date: Nov. 22, 2024
Grammy History: Producers Stephen Schwartz, Stephen Oremus, and Greg Wells are all multiple Grammy winners. The stage version of the Wicked won Best Musical Theater Album in 2005.
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12. Bon Iver, ‘Sable, Fable’
Image Credit: Ben Gabbe/Getty Images for The New Yorker Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Jagjaguwar
Release Date: April 11, 2025
Grammy History: Bon Iver have won two Grammys, including Best New Artist in 2012. They have two previous nominations for Album of the Year, including for their last studio album I, I.
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13. FKA Twigs, ‘Eusexua’
Image Credit: John Nacion/Variety Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Young/Atlantic
Release Date: Jan. 24, 2025
Grammy History: She has one previous Grammy nomination, Best Music Video for “Cellophane.” She has yet to be nominated in the general field.
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14. Alison Krauss and Union Station, ‘Arcadia’
Image Credit: Kevin Winter/Getty Images Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Down the Road
Release Date: March 28, 2025
Grammy History: Krauss is one of the most awarded individuals in Grammy history with 27 trophies, which also makes her the second most awarded woman of all time behind Beyoncé.
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15. Jelly Roll, ‘Beautifully Broken’
Image Credit: Gilbert Flores for Penske Media Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Bailee & Buddy/This Is Hit/Stoney Creek/Republic
Release Date: Oct. 11, 2024
Grammy History: He’s a four-time Grammy nominee, including Best New Artist in 2024. He has no previous nominations for Album of the Year.
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16. Linkin Park, ‘From Zero’
Image Credit: Luciana Prezia/Penske Media Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Warner/Machine Shop
Release Date: Nov. 15, 2024
Grammy History: The band has won two Grammys, but they have not been nominated for Album of the Year.
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17. Mumford and Sons, ‘Rushmere’
Image Credit: Amy Sussman/Getty Images for The Recording Academy Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Island/Glassnote
Release Date: March 28, 2025
Grammy History: The band has only won two Grammys in their career, but one of them was Album of the Year, for Babel in 2013.
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18. Halsey, ‘The Great Impersonator’
Image Credit: John Nacion/Variety Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Columbia
Release Date: Oct. 25, 2024
Grammy History: She has three previous Grammy nominations, including Album of the Year as a featured artist on Justin Bieber’s Purpose. She has yet to win in any category.
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19. Teddy Swims, ‘I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2)’
Image Credit: Christopher Polk/Billboard Current Odds: 100/1
Label: Warner
Release Date: Jan. 24, 2025
Grammy History: Teddy Swims earned his first Grammy nomination, Best New Artist, in 2025.
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20. Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco, ‘I Said I Love You First’
Image Credit: Neilson Barnard/Getty Images Current Odds: 100/1
Label: SMG Music/Friends Keep Secrets/Interscope
Release Date: March 21, 2025
Grammy History: Gomez has two previous Grasmmy nominations, including Album of the Year as a featured artist on Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres. She has yet to win in any category.
