Entrepreneurship

Empirical research in economics often examines the behavior of agents located in a geographic space. In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to account for this dependence is to cluster standard errors based...

We show that leadership skill with artificially intelligent (AI) agents predicts leadership skill with human groups. In a large pre-registered lab experiment, human leaders worked with AI agents to solve problems. Their performance on this AI leadership test was strongly correlated (=0.81) with...

In the World Bank Enterprise Survey, the share of entrepreneurs who are women first rises and then falls with national income, which reverses the well-known U-shaped relationship between female labor force participation and economic development. This paper presents a model of entrepreneurship in...

Beginning in January 2021, over less than two years, credit card usage by small U.S. businesses nearly doubled, interest payments rose by 60%, and delinquencies reached 2.8%. In this paper, we utilize near real-time QuickBooks data from over 1.6 million small businesses and a targeted survey to...

Given the ubiquitous presence of endogenous regressors and the challenges in finding good instruments to overcome the endogeneity problem, a forefront of recent research is the development and application of endogeneity correction methods without requiring instruments. In this article, we formulate...

We use matched employer-employee data to study where Americans live in relation to employer worksites. Mean distance from employee home to employer worksite rose from 15 miles in 2019 to 26 miles in 2023. Twelve percent of employees hired after March 2020 live at least fifty miles from their...

We develop and estimate a new model of endogenous growth in bank efficiency and firm productivity in which banks adopt technology embedded in capital goods produced by entrepreneurs, and agents choose whether to become workers or capital-good-producing entrepreneurs. In this framework, bank...

Headline estimates for the extent of work from home (WFH) differ widely across U.S. surveys. The differences shrink greatly when we harmonize with respect to the WFH concept, target population, and question design. As of 2025, our preferred estimates say that WFH accounts for a quarter of paid...

We leverage recent advances in NLP to construct measures of workers' task exposure to AI and machine learning technologies over the 2010 to 2023 period that vary across firms and time. Using a theoretical framework that allows for a labor-saving technology to affect worker productivity both directly...

We study venture capital (VC) selection using the deal flow and investment decisions for more than 8,000 sourced deals from one early-stage VC in detail. The (unconditional) likelihood that a sourced start-up raises at least $1 million in VC funding from some VC firm is roughly 30%. The deals the VC...

We examine job-seekers' heterogeneous preferences for nonwage amenities, with a focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, using an incentivized field experiment in Brazil. Our findings reveal that ESG is the most polarizing nonwage amenity across multiple sociodemographic...

Using multiple administrative data sources from Norway, we examine how firm performance changes after entrepreneurs become parents. Female-owned businesses experience a substantial decline in profits, steadily decreasing to 30% below baseline ten years post-childbirth. In contrast, male-owned...

We build a general equilibrium model to study how climate transition risks affect energy prices and the valuations of different firms in the energy sector. We consider two types of fossil fuel firms: incumbents that have developed oil reserves they can extract today or tomorrow, and new entrants...

We study the effect of a large increase in firm leverage. We isolate the independent, causal effect of debt using the setting of private equity-sponsored dividend recapitalizations, where companies take on debt to pay investor returns, and opportunistic responsiveness to credit supply permits a...

We partner with a large US payment-processing company to run a 5-year, 10 wave panel survey of incentivized quarterly sales forecasts on over 6,000 firms. We match firm predictions to proprietary revenue data to assess accuracy. We find firms forecast poorly, with issues of inaccuracy, over-optimism...

Firms frequently fail to adopt profitable business opportunities even when they do not face informational or liquidity constraints. We explore three behavioral frictions that explain inertia among individualspresent bias, limited memory, and distrustin a managerial setting. In partnership with a...

Younger entrepreneurs are disadvantaged by traditional loan underwriting, which relies heavily on personal credit scores. With data from three fintech companies, we show that incorporating timely information about ability to repay from business checking account statements particularly improves...

How can we use the novel capacities of large language models (LLMs) in empirical research? And how can we do so while accounting for their limitations, which are themselves only poorly understood? We develop an econometric framework to answer this question that distinguishes between two types of...

Platform intermediation of goods and services has considerably transformed the U.S. economy. We use administrative data on U.S. tax returns to study the role of the gig economy on entrepreneurship. We find that gig workers are more likely to become entrepreneurs, particularly those who are lower...

Endogeneity is a primary concern when evaluating causal effects using observational panel data. While unit-specific intercepts control for unobserved time-invariant confounders, dependence between (i) regressors (e.g., marketing mix strategy of interests) and the current error term (regressor...

We hypothesize and find evidence that banks use venture investments in fintech startups as a strategic approach to navigate fintech competition. We show that banks venture investments have increasingly focused on fintech firms in systematic ways. We find that banks facing greater fintech competition...

The Census Bureaus Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) underpins many studies of firm-level behavior. It tracks longitudinally all employers in the nonfarm private sector but lacks information about business financing and owner characteristics. We address this shortcoming by linking LBD...

We investigate the influence of the growing trend of work-from-home (WFH) on new business formation, with a particular focus on the period surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. At baseline, local new business entry is positively associated with the proportion of occupations amenable to telework in the...

How do venture capital investors react to social movements, including those that relate to historical underrepresentation in funding? We use image and name algorithms combined with clerical review to classify race for 150,000 founders and 30,000 investors. These data allow us to assess the impact of...

We study racial and gender disparities in entrepreneurial activity through the lens of a Roy model, focusing on the distinction between idea generation and execution. Using nationally representative sur-vey data, we find that Black and Hispanic individuals demonstrate higher entrepreneurial...

New firms do not yet have employees who can aid recruiting by referrals, but entrepreneurs can recruit workers they know to their startupsin effect making their own referrals. We consider new firms in Brazils formal sector founded between 2002 and 2014, for which at least one founding owner can be...

This paper uses Norwegian tax records to examine the performance of angel investors. While most angel investments perform poorly, mean returns are twice the invested capital, due largely to extreme skewness: around one-third of investments are a total loss, but the top one-percent return more than...

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has recently emerged as a potentially transformative workplace technology. The ultimate impact of generative AI on the economy will depend on how many workers adopt the technology, how intensively they use it, and for which tasks. In The Rapid Adoption of...

We evaluate private equity (PE) performance using investor-specific stochastic discount factors, and examine whether investors could benefit from changing their allocation to PE. Plans invest in PE funds with higher average risk-adjusted performance. This is mainly due to access to successful PE...

Firms invest heavily in customer capital, and such investment is a main source of intangible capital value. Investment in customer capital is measured using sales and marketing expense from income statements, information on salaries paid to workers in sales and marketing, and text from annual 10-K...

We document and dissect a new stylized fact about firm growth: the shift from labor to intermediate inputs. This shift occurs in input quantities, cost and output shares, and output elasticities. We establish this fact using German firm-level data and replicate it in administrative firm data from 11...

We develop a credit market competition model that distinguishes between the information span (breadth) and signal precision (quality), capturing the emerging trend in fintech/non-bank lending where traditionally subjective (soft) information becomes more objective and concrete (hard). In a model...

We study the direct and indirect effects of randomized entry. In partnership with the two largest service providers in Ghana, we implement a three-step design that randomizes the entry of new financial mobile money vendors, who also sell non-financial goods/services, across local markets. This mixed...

We study funding gaps on Kickstarter across multiple ethnic groups from 2009-2021. Scaling the concept of racially salient events, we quantify the close co-movement of minority funding gaps in crowd-funding to inflamed political rhetoric surrounding migration. The funding gap for minorities more...

The recent rise of the gig economy has raised many new questions about labor markets and the impact of new business models on workers. In Driving the Gig Economy (NBER Working Paper 32766), Katharine G. Abraham, John C. Haltiwanger, Claire Y. Hou, Kristin Sandusky, and James Spletzer examine the...

We make randomized firm-to-firm referrals between 700 supplier and client firms in the industry producing the Chinese writing brush. Subsidized referrals lead to subsequent transactions and a partial crowding out of prior partners; information-only referrals have no effect. The referrals increase...

U.S. securities regulators have sought to protect investors in private markets by forcing issuers to fundraise via personal networks. Focusing on VC fund managers, we study a 2013 policy permitting public advertising in private markets (506(c)). Less well-networked and underrepresented managers...

In Stock Market Wealth and Entrepreneurship (NBER Working Paper 32643), Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Plamen T. Nenov, Vitor Santos, and Alp Simsek evaluate the relationship between the performance of a households stock market portfolio and the likelihood that someone in that household launches an...

Sociologists have argued that third places like cafs, which provide opportunities for individuals to socialize and exchange ideas outside of home and work, improve neighborhood life. But what about the relationship between such places and economic activity? In Third Places and Neighborhood...

How does a persons childhood socioeconomic status (SES) influence their chances to participate and succeed in science? To investigate this question, we use machine-learning methods to link scientists in a comprehensive biographical dictionary, the American Men of Science (1921), with their childhood...

Immigrants to the US are more entrepreneurial than the native population and overrepresented among high-growth startups and venture-backed tech firms. In Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda (NBER Working Paper 32400), Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr,...

This paper provides new insights into the nature of entrepreneurship using a novel panel dataset based on U.S. administrative data from the Internal Revenue Service and the Social Security Administration. These data are used to analyze patterns of income growth and determinants of entrepreneurial...

We use a controlled experiment to show that ability and belief calibration jointly determine the benefits of working with Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI improves performance more for people with low baseline ability. However, holding ability constant, AI assistance is more valuable for people who...